Citizen G'kar: Musings on Earth

August 27, 2006

Iran Continues to Posture and Threaten

According to the WaPo, Iran has tested a submarine-to-surface missile. Not only does Iran have the ability to design and build their own missles, they are also turning out submarines capable of launching missiles. There was no reference in the article on whether these missiles could launch a nuclear warhead, but I suspect that if the Iranians can produce their own missiles and submarines, they will eventually build a nuclear weapon and an ability to deliver it. The launch was part of the military exersizes Iran is running through October, apparent to dissuade military action by Israel or the US.
Meanwhile, an Israeli Newspaper,Haaretz, reports that Iranian Parliament Vice Speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar threatened to build nuclear weapons if pressure to prevent a Iranian peaceful program continues. This is of course assumed to be the case by most people who consider the fact that Iran is now surrounded by countries overthrown by it's arch enemy, the US. The other issue is that Israel has been well known to place disinformation in newspapers to serve it's national security. The Iranian President has been misquoted several times saying he advocated sweeping Israel into the sea, but several sources including Juan Cole have confirmed that he was misquoted in translation.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was also quoted saying that his country poses no threat to Israel, but that no one can deprive Iran of its right to nuclear technology. To prove his point, the WaPo reported that Iran inaugurated a heavy-water production plant just days before the threat of censure from world powers. Ahmadinejad signaled that the Islamic Republic would not be cowed.
However, he made deliberate efforts to reassure the world, in particular Israel that Iran presents no threat. "We are not a threat to anybody — even the Zionist regime, which is a definite enemy for the people of the region."
There is further evidence that sanctions will not be forthcoming from the UN Security Council. Russia has stated is opposition recently. Analysts believe that China and Russia are unlikely to change their mind. Haaretz says that the Bush Administration no longer believes the Security Council will act and is planning actions of it's own. However, it is clear that sanctions are unlkely to convince Iran anything, it may in fact create more internal support for it's policies and enable Ahmadinejad to continue to consolidate power.

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