PM aides fear talks with Syria could harm U.S. ties

Amid reports of a Syrian and Israeli military build up on their shared border, both countries are making peacemaking jestures as well. Apparently, the Israelis have decided that either there will be a peace settlement or there will be war with Syria.

The Cabinet met a day after the military staged war games, including a simulated attack on a Syrian village and another that simulated a surprise attack by Syrian commandos on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Israeli media has reported a Syrian troop and missile build-up along its borders.


"The Syrians are making very concrete preparations but these are defensive," Major General Amos Yadlin, Israel's military intelligence chief, told a parliamentary committee on Tuesday. "They are preparing more for a war than they have done before, but that does not mean they will be ready tomorrow."

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's advisors have warned him that the Bush Administration might not look kindly on peace talks now that an UN Tribunal is looking into Syrian involvement in the assassination of Rafiq al-Hariri, the popular multi-billionnaire Lebanese Sunni prime minister of Lebanon.

Some of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's advisors are concerned that an initiative to renew peace talks with Syria might undermine Israel's relations with the United States. The Bush administration is not keen on reviving the Syrian track, as it considers Bashar Assad's regime problematic and harmful to regional stability. However, Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi strongly supports renewed talks with Syria, with the goal of distancing Damascus from its alliance with Iran and contributing to a new regional order in which Syria would forge closer relations with moderate Arab states.


[..]According to the Israeli government source, the "evaluation" that Olmert is currently conducting via a third party is aimed at trying to determine the "strategic return" that Syria will offer Israel in exchange for an Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights. "We wish to know whether the border overlooking [Lake] Kinneret will be quiet, or whether there will be Hamas outposts and Iranian forces," the source said. This question is at the crux of the "evaluation," along with the transmission of messages aimed at preventing the outbreak of a war between Israel and Syria due to a "miscalculation" in Damascus.


Intelligence assessments received by Olmert emphasize Syria's central role in the "axis of evil." The prime minister would therefore like to ensure that Syria will cool its relations with Iran and reintegrate into the group of moderate Sunni states - Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia - as part of any peace deal. According to the government source, a withdrawal from the Golan Heights would be a mistake if Syria's alliance with Iran, and the support Damascus offers to Hezbollah and Hamas, continue.