The idea that Iran would smuggle bombs into Iraq is absolutely ludicrous. Iran wants a united Iraq as an ally and to prevent an independent Kurdistan.
The United States is divided on what to do about Iraq. The Republicans and the Democrats within their own parties can't agree on what to do. The only person sure of himself is Bush. What does that tell you?
Pulling out of Iraq immediately will precipitate a civil war and make us indirectly responsible for what Cole estimates as a million deaths, and millions more displaced. A civil war in Iraq would a regional war involving Turkey and Iran who are concerned about an independent Kurdistan precipitating a civil war in their countries. Cole believes Syria, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia (I believe Egypt would join the Saudis) would enter the war as well. Oil would be disrupted all over the Middle East by saboteurs precipitating higher oil prices than anyone foresees today and a worldwide recession that will make 1987 pale in comparison. Or perhaps we would face a new depression.
The Bush Administration foriegn policy has destablized the world economy and most importantly destabilized the entire Middle East. He has compounded the mistakes of the Reagan Administration. Cole says it best:
...the gradual radicalization of the entire Sunni Arab heartland of Iraq stands [is a] testimony to the miserable failure of US military counter-insurgency tactics. It seems to me indisputable that US tactics have progressively made things worse in that part of Iraq, contributing to the destabilization of the country.
Cole offers an intriguing proposal for a morally defendable withdrawl of US troops. This is a proposal I can get behind.
1) US ground troops should be withdrawn ASAP from urban areas as a first step. Iraqi police will just have to do the policing. We are no good at it. If local militias take over, that is the Iraqi government's problem. The prime minister will have to either compromise with the militia leaders or send in other Iraqi militias to take them on. Who runs Iraqi cities can no longer be a primary concern of the US military. Our troops are warriors, not traffic cops.
2) In the second phase of withdrawal, most US ground troops would steadily be brought out of Iraq.
3) For as long as the elected Iraqi government wanted it, the US would offer the new Iraqi military and security forces close air support in any firefight they have with guerrilla or other rebellious forces.
[...]
7) The US should demand as a quid pro quo for further help that elections in Iraq henceforward be held on a district basis so as to ensure proper representation in parliament for the Sunni Arab provinces. This step is necessary if there is to be any hope of drawing the Sunni Arab political elites into the new government.
8) The US should demand as a quid pro quo for further help that the Iraqi government announce an amnesty for all former Baath Party members who cannot be proven to have committed serious crimes, including crimes against humanity. Former Baathists who have been fired from the schools and civil bureaucracy must be reinstated, and no further firings are to take place. (This step is key in convincing the old Sunni Arab elites that they won't be screwed over in the new Iraq.)
9) Congress must rewrite the laws governing US reconstruction aid to Iraq so as to take out provisions that Iraqis must where possible use US companies or materiel. All of the reconstruction money should go directly to Iraqi firms, so as to help jump-start the economy.
No comments:
Post a Comment