A Shifting Balence of Power in the Asian Pacific

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The Chinese decision to deny US ships access to Hong Kong harbor marks a significant shift in the balence of power in the South China Sea. At the same time, Chinese ships have ported in Tokyo harbor for the first time. While largely symbolic, the meaning of these events should not be underestimated.
PINR

[..]On November 20, two navy minesweepers, the USS Patriot and USS Guardian, were performing routine patrol missions in the South China Sea when a weather storm descended upon them. Both ships were also running low on fuel. They sent an emergency request to Chinese authorities to dock at Hong Kong in order to weather the storm and refuel. The request was denied. The two ships were forced to stay out at sea.


Another incident centers around a U.S. aircraft carrier, the USS Kitty Hawk. The Kitty Hawk and the five support vessels that travel with her were scheduled to dock in Hong Kong on November 21, one day before Thanksgiving. The arrangements for this port call had been worked out well in advance, and the Chinese authorities had granted approval. As the USS Kitty Hawk approached port, Chinese authorities radioed to indicate that the approval had been revoked. In order to salvage some part of the holiday, the USS Kitty Hawk turned and sailed for Japan, where approval would be certain. Some time later, Chinese authorities radioed again to say that approval had been re-granted. Yet, by this time, the Kitty Hawk was well on her way to Japan and could not afford to turn back.


On the same day, two other events transpired. Chinese authorities sent a communiqué to the U.S. Department of the Navy to inform them that the pending request for the USS Reuben James to dock in Hong Kong on New Year's Day had been denied.


[..]Regarding the balance of power, the events of the last week are a clear indication that a change is occurring in East Asia. Expressed in the simplest terms, the U.S. Navy is losing the ability to dock in Chinese controlled territories while the Chinese navy is gaining the ability to dock in Japanese territories. The frontier of the American sphere of influence is regressing, while the frontier of the Chinese sphere of influence is growing outward.


At a deeper level of analysis the change in the balance of power is even more evident. The USS Kitty Hawk is considered a significant vessel by the Chinese. The ship provided indispensible support to the campaign in Afghanistan, to which China, along with other member states in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, has taken a clear stance of active disapproval. To the Chinese government, the USS Kitty Hawk is symbolic of Washington's role in Afghanistan and presence in Central Asia.


The USS Kitty Hawk is also symbolic of another long standing disagreement. In 1994, the Kitty Hawk was instrumental in putting down tensions between Taiwan and the mainland. Ever since 1998, the Kitty Hawk has been the flagship in U.S. efforts to maintain peace across the straits. As a result, to the Chinese government the USS Kitty Hawk is also symbolic of Washington's extended deterrence for Taiwan.


Given that the Kitty Hawk symbolizes Washington's presence and dominance in China's backyard, the rejection of the Kitty Hawk and concurrent expedition to Japan must be viewed as changes in the balance of power in East Asia. The extent and consequences of these changes are unclear at the present time. However, if these questions are to be understood in the future, the answers will most likely be gleamed from analysis of events in Taiwan, Japan and the Spratley Islands. If the spheres of influence are indeed shifting, any repercussions will be evident in these domains, which are situated at the threshold of the two spheres.