- Common wisdom holds that if American troops withdraw anytime soon, Iraq will descend into civil war, as Lebanon did in the late 1970's. But that ignores a question posed by events of recent weeks: Has a civil war already begun? Iraq is no Lebanon yet. But evidence is building that it is at least in the early stages of ethnic and sectarian warfare....
The Americans have added to the alienation of the Sunnis by relying heavily on Shiite and Kurdish military recruits to put down the Sunni insurgency in some of the most volatile areas. The guerrillas, in turn, reinforce sectarian animosities when they attack police recruits or interim government officials as collaborators. Many of these recruits are Shiites or Kurds, and the loss of life reverberates through their families and communities. In recent weeks, at least one new Shiite militia has formed - not in opposition to the Americans, but to exact revenge against the Sunnis.
The inevitable is finally unfolding. How many more thousand Iraqis will die in this war? How many more thousands of sons and daughters of America die or be maimed? The purpose of this war, to change the political climate of the region to something more favorable to the US, a goal that is impossible to achieve now, is forgotten by Bush supporters. So will American troops now attempt to prevent the new Shiite militias to disband? I think not. They are too busy with the growing conflict.
Complete Article
Sunnis vs. Shiites and Kurds: Mayhem in Iraq Is Starting to Look Like a Civil War
December 5, 2004
By EDWARD WONG
BAGHDAD - Common wisdom holds that if American troops
withdraw anytime soon, Iraq will descend into civil war, as
Lebanon did in the late 1970's. But that ignores a question
posed by events of recent weeks:
Has a civil war already begun?
Iraq is no Lebanon yet.
But evidence is building that it is at least in the early
stages of ethnic and sectarian warfare.
Armed Iraqi groups have mounted ever more deadly and
spectacular assaults on fellow Iraqis, in bids to assert
political and territorial dominance. This fighting is
generally defined by ethnic and religious divisions:
rebellious Sunni Arabs clashing with Shiite Arabs and
Kurds. On Friday, in Baghdad, mortar attacks on a police
station and the suicide car bombing of a Shiite mosque left
at least 27 dead.
Some academic and military analysts say the battle lines
have been hardened by the American policy of limiting the
power of the minority Sunni Arabs, who dominated Iraq under
Saddam Hussein's rule and make up most of the rebellion.
The Americans have handed the bulk of authority to the
Shiites, who represent a majority of Iraqis, and a lesser
share to the Kurds, who are about a fifth of the
population. This has increased the influence of the two
major groups that were brutally suppressed by Mr. Hussein,
and raised Sunni fears about sharing power with them as a
minority.
Some of the country's most prominent Sunni Arab leaders are
expressing indifference or opposition to taking part in the
elections for a constitution-writing legislature, while the
Shiites and Kurds are eager to participate. Iraqi electoral
officials and President Bush insist the vote will take
place as scheduled, despite calls from Sunni leaders for a
significant delay. Thus, the specter of civil conflict
could grow as the Jan. 30 vote approaches.
The Americans have added to the alienation of the Sunnis by
relying heavily on Shiite and Kurdish military recruits to
put down the Sunni insurgency in some of the most volatile
areas. The guerrillas, in turn, reinforce sectarian
animosities when they attack police recruits or interim
government officials as collaborators. Many of these
recruits are Shiites or Kurds, and the loss of life
reverberates through their families and communities.
In recent weeks, at least one new Shiite militia has formed
- not in opposition to the Americans, but to exact revenge
against the Sunnis.
American officials pin their hope of ultimately bringing
peace to Iraq on the success of the January elections and
the formation of an elected government, and they do not
think a full-scale civil war is inevitable. They say Iraqi
society is an elaborate mosaic where groups have coexisted
for a long time. They point out that not all Sunnis are in
open rebellion or reject the elections. Just last week,
Sheik Ghazi al-Yawar, the president of Iraq and a leader in
a powerful Sunni tribe, said his new party would compete in
the elections. And some Americans predict that once Sunnis
see the elections going forward as planned, most will
resign themselves to taking part.
Still, continuing violence creates pressure for animosities
to build. Assaults by Iraqis on other Iraqis have taken
grisly and audacious turns lately. In October, insurgents
dressed as policemen waylaid three minibuses carrying 49
freshly trained Iraqi Army soldiers - most or all of them
Shiites traveling south on leave - and executed them.
Pilgrims going south to the Shiite holy cities of Najaf and
Karbala have also been gunned down.
In response, Shiite leaders in the southern city of Basra
began telling young men last month that it was time for
revenge. They organized hundreds of Shiites into the Anger
Brigades, the latest of many armed groups that have
announced their formation in the anarchy of the new Iraq.
The stated goal of the brigades is to kill extremist Sunni
Arabs in the north Babil area, widely known as the
"Triangle of Death," where many Shiite security officers
and pilgrims have been killed.
"The Wahhabis and Salafis have come together to harm fellow
Muslims and have begun killing anyone affiliated with the
Shiite sect," Dhia al-Mahdi, the leader of the Anger
Brigades, said in a written statement. "The Anger Brigades
will be dispatched to those areas where these germs are,
and there will be battles."
It is unclear whether the Anger Brigades have made good on
their threats yet, but their very formation hints at how
much the dynamics of violence have shifted in Iraq.
James Fearon, a professor of political science at Stanford
University, pointed to the creation of such groups as "part
of the civil-war-in-the-making we see now." He also said
that the history of colonial rule teaches that civil
conflict can result when an occupying power favors some
local groups over others and uses its favorites as military
proxies, a common strategy among imperial powers.
Within the new Iraqi security forces, Kurds, and to a
lesser extent Shiites, have proven to be the most effective
fighters against the Sunni-led insurgency, and the American
military and the interim Iraqi government are drawing
greatly from the militias of the big Kurdish and Shiite
political parties.
The strategy surfaced dramatically last month in Mosul, a
city in northern Iraq where violence flared even as
American troops carried out their devastating assault on
insurrectionists in the Sunni stronghold of Falluja. In
Mosul, the governor trucked in 2,000 Kurdish militiamen,
and much of the fighting that followed took place in the
city's Sunni Arab neighborhoods, where American convoys are
now attacked daily.
Mosul is a microcosm of the problems afflicting Iraq, and
civil conflict is clearly on the rise there. The insurgency
is being organized by former Baath Party officials who are
intent on retaking power from fellow Iraqis, rather than by
jihadists simply trying to sow anarchy, said Brig. Gen.
Carter F. Ham, commander of a task force charged with
controlling the far north. The guerrillas have executed at
least 90 Iraqis in recent days, many from the nascent
security forces.
In the past, the American military command here often
emphasized the role of foreign mujahedeen in the rebellion.
Recently, it has acknowledged that Iraqis form the vast
majority of the insurgents, but it continues to use the
term "anti-Iraqi forces" to describe all rebels. While the
term does describe their opposition to the interim Iraqi
government, it still obscures the gradual shifting of this
war into civil conflict. In fact, fewer than 5 percent of
the first 1,000 detainees captured during the recent
fighting in Falluja were foreigners.
One of the most significant signs of the hardening
divisions among Iraqis was that the Shiites did little to
protest the Falluja offensive. Last April, when American
marines launched their first and ultimately ill-fated
invasion of Falluja, Moktada al-Sadr, a firebrand Shiite
cleric, led an uprising in an effort to form a united front
against the occupation. The second time around, his top
aide only made a brief televised declaration criticizing
the much more violent American assault. And Grand Ayatollah
Ali al-Sistani, Iraq's most powerful Shiite cleric, did not
immediately condemn the invasion.
"So many victims of the revolt have been Shia, especially
the police and army recruits and officers killed in large
numbers at least once every week or two," Mark Levine, a
professor of modern Middle Eastern history at the
University of California at Irvine, wrote in an essay after
the battle for Falluja. Such attacks, and the introduction
of foreign Sunni fighters in Iraq, he continued, "have
resurrected the Shia anger at the suffering they endured
under Saddam's rule."
The biggest bellwether of an emerging civil conflict could
be the elections, when political feuding over whether to
participate could quickly lead to armed clashes.
Against that backdrop, the Pentagon last week announced it
would increase the number of troops here to 150,000 from
138,000, to help guard against disruptive violence
directed, presumably by Sunni insurgents, at candidates and
voters - the most enthusiastic of whom will no doubt be
Shiites and Kurds.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/05/weekinreview/05wong.html?ex=1103391620&ei=1&en=952d7c4c03f96d4f
/--------- E-mail Sponsored by Fox Searchlight ------------\
SIDEWAYS - NOW PLAYING IN SELECT CITIES
An official selection of the New York Film Festival and the
Toronto International Film Festival, SIDEWAYS is the new
comedy from Alexander Payne, director of ELECTION and ABOUT
SCHMIDT. Starring Paul Giamatti, Thomas Haden Church,
Sandra Oh and Virginia Madsen. Watch the trailer at:
http://www.foxsearchlight.com/sideways/index_nyt.html
\----------------------------------------------------------/
Get Home Delivery of The New York Times Newspaper. Imagine
reading The New York Times any time & anywhere you like!
Leisurely catch up on events & expand your horizons. Enjoy
now for 50% off Home Delivery! Click here:
http://homedelivery.nytimes.com/HDS/SubscriptionT1.do?mode=SubscriptionT1&ExternalMediaCode=W24AF
HOW TO ADVERTISE
---------------------------------
For information on advertising in e-mail newsletters
or other creative advertising opportunities with The
New York Times on the Web, please contact
<a href="mailto:onlinesales@nytimes.com">onlinesales@nytimes.com or visit our online media
kit at http://www.nytimes.com/adinfo
For general information about NYTimes.com, write to
<a href="mailto:help@nytimes.com">help@nytimes.com.
Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company
No comments:
Post a Comment