The Black Sea Becomes a Flash Point After 150 Years of Peace

With Ukraine, Bulgaria, and Romania move towards NATO and EU membership, Russia's vulnerable southern flank sees an intensification of political intrigue and potential war. Its the chronic instability of the area that led Russia to try to dominate the Black Sea region. But what they misunderstood is by oppressing the region they only postponed and intensified the underlying conflict over the years. It contributed to the rapid breakup of the Soviet Union and now all the local strife has manifested in numerous conflagrations. With Russia's security interests in the balence, they will exploit the conflict as best they can.
Guardian Unlimited | Interests and aspirations clash in region of frozen conflicts

Yet while Romania, Bulgaria, and more precariously, Ukraine, have made their pro-western choice, the fate of many regional states and peoples hangs in the balance.


Moldova, sandwiched between Romania and Ukraine, is one of the most dangerous of the "frozen conflicts" of which Mr Basescu warned. Located in an area once known as Bessarabia, Moldova is the poorest country in Europe, divided since independence in 1991 by a secessionist movement in eastern Transdniestria.


Now Moldova's communist leaders, facing elections next month, have broken with their traditional ally, Russia, and are pursuing EU integration. President Vladimir Voronin appealed last week for western assistance, saying separatist "armed units" were bent on provoking a crisis. Moldova has also asked in vain that Russia withdraw its troops.


Almost unnoticed, the EU published an "action plan" in December, inviting Moldova "to enter into intensified political, security and economic relations" and describing a Transdniestria solution as a "key objective". In short, Moldova is a looming European problem.


Similar disputes requiring international attention ring the Black Sea. In former Soviet Georgia, scene of the 2003 "rose revolution", the pro-western government of President Mikhail Saakashvili is still struggling with Moscow-backed separatists in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.


Linked to Georgia's future is the future of independence-minded Chechnya, where low-level conflict with Russian forces still smoulders, and the wider Caucasus region.


In Armenia an authoritarian government is locked in a cold war with Turkey and Azerbaijan, principally over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, where tens of thousands died in the early 1990s. To end its isolation Armenia is increasingly looking to Brussels.


While insisting on political and economic reforms, the EU recently included Armenia in its European "neighbourhood policy". Self-interest plays a part. Armenia's woes have produced an exodus of economic migrants; most head westwards.


Underlying all this is the Black Sea's growing strategic importance as an outlet for Russian and Caspian oil - another potential source of conflict as well as wealth.

Complete Article
World briefingInterests and aspirations clash in region of frozen conflicts
Simon Tisdall
Tuesday February 8, 2005
Guardian
The ancient Greeks called it Pontus Axeinus - the inhospitable sea. Jason and the Argonauts sailed its turbid waters, seeking the Golden Fleece in the land of Colchis, present-day Georgia. Turks who feared its lowering storms called it Kara Dengiz, hence its English name.
Now the Black Sea, contested through history by Roman emperors, Russian tsars, Nazi and Soviet totalitarians and, inevitably, by British imperialists in the Crimea in the 1850s, is once again emerging as a strategic amphitheatre of clashing interests and aspirations.
When Romania and Bulgaria join the EU in 2007, modern Europe's new frontier will come hard up against the rumbling underbelly of Russia's collapsed empire.
Arrayed around this new Black Sea bullring, an encircling host of failed, floundering or would-be states must soon decide whether their future lies within the Euro-Atlantic community.
It is here that defining 21st-century battles over identity, security, democratic values, oil, and migration will be waged. And it is here that an ever-enlarging Europe's limitations, political as well as geographical, may finally be painfully exposed.
Romania's reformist leader, Traian Basescu, who watches over a lengthy tract of western Black Sea coast, is keenly attuned to this challenge. He won the presidency last December in Romania's quieter version of neighbouring Ukraine's "orange revolution".
Mr Basescu's visit to London last week amounted to an early warning. In his view Romania is becoming a frontline state in what governments now call the Greater Black Sea region.
"The common security threats that we face are many. The Black Sea region has become an area for trafficking in people, in drugs and weapons," Mr Basescu said.
"It is an area of frozen conflicts. These are threats for all Nato and EU members. In this region we are in a democratic transition period, a period of emerging democracies - and that presents an element of risk."
Romania has been offered additional British help in fighting corruption and organised crime, curbing illegal immigration and preparing for EU membership, diplomats said.
Both Romania and Bulgaria are already Nato members. And the Bucharest government, which has offered military base facilities to the US at Constanta, has purchased two ex-Royal Navy frigates.
Yet while Romania, Bulgaria, and more precariously, Ukraine, have made their pro-western choice, the fate of many regional states and peoples hangs in the balance.
Moldova, sandwiched between Romania and Ukraine, is one of the most dangerous of the "frozen conflicts" of which Mr Basescu warned. Located in an area once known as Bessarabia, Moldova is the poorest country in Europe, divided since independence in 1991 by a secessionist movement in eastern Transdniestria.
Now Moldova's communist leaders, facing elections next month, have broken with their traditional ally, Russia, and are pursuing EU integration. President Vladimir Voronin appealed last week for western assistance, saying separatist "armed units" were bent on provoking a crisis. Moldova has also asked in vain that Russia withdraw its troops.
Almost unnoticed, the EU published an "action plan" in December, inviting Moldova "to enter into intensified political, security and economic relations" and describing a Transdniestria solution as a "key objective". In short, Moldova is a looming European problem.
Similar disputes requiring international attention ring the Black Sea. In former Soviet Georgia, scene of the 2003 "rose revolution", the pro-western government of President Mikhail Saakashvili is still struggling with Moscow-backed separatists in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Linked to Georgia's future is the future of independence-minded Chechnya, where low-level conflict with Russian forces still smoulders, and the wider Caucasus region.
In Armenia an authoritarian government is locked in a cold war with Turkey and Azerbaijan, principally over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, where tens of thousands died in the early 1990s. To end its isolation Armenia is increasingly looking to Brussels.
While insisting on political and economic reforms, the EU recently included Armenia in its European "neighbourhood policy". Self-interest plays a part. Armenia's woes have produced an exodus of economic migrants; most head westwards.
Underlying all this is the Black Sea's growing strategic importance as an outlet for Russian and Caspian oil - another potential source of conflict as well as wealth.
A sort of "best pipeline" contest is now under way. Russia is exploring a new oil route with Bulgaria and Greece that would bypass pro-western Turkey. From Athens, at least, this looks like a terrific idea.
Another pipeline will run from Azerbaijan via Georgia to Turkey's Mediterranean coast, deviously circumventing poor, ostracised Armenia. Yet another could link Bulgaria's Black Sea coast with Macedonia, Albania and the Adriatic - with intriguing implications for the Balkans.
While the EU gazes east and wonders just how far it can go, especially regarding Russia, the US feels fewer constraints. It is determined to secure its Caspian oil supplies. And its new military toeholds on the western shore could in time be used to project US influence across the entire Black Sea region.
Europe's policy may be drifting. Russia may fret and storm. But Washington reckons it knows which way the wind is blowing. Like the ancient Greeks, it aims to turn the Black Sea into the Pontus Euxinus - the friendly sea.
Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2005