Oil Law Debate in Iraq Headed for Disaster

All the hoohaa about the surge appears to be headed for naught. This think tank which in my experience is middle of the road and seldom emphatic, is quite blunt about the incompetence of the diplomatic efforts by the US with the Iraqis on the oil law that could heal most wounds. It's predicted to fail here. The whole article is worth the read.
PINR

It now appears impossible for Iraq's parliament to pass the national oil law by the government-imposed deadline of May 31, 2007. The immediate cost of this failure will be economic -- while many of the Western majors would not invest in Iraq due to the remaining security risks, Eastern and smaller oil firms appear willing if the political risks were first removed through legislation.


However, the long-term damage done by the failure to reach a consensus on the oil law will be a hardening of the sectarian fractures in Iraq's political landscape. The debates surrounding the oil law do not center on what is best for the country as a whole, but only on what is best for each sectarian group. By defining the debate as yet another zero sum competition, Iraq's politicians have made it impossible to emerge from the negotiations without at least one group feeling like the losers. The U.S. Embassy in Iraq has only encouraged this situation by insisting on a greater role for foreign firms in future investments.


[..]Iraq's national oil law has become an important factor in gauging the country's progress on political reconciliation. Judging by the debate surrounding the oil law, such a reconciliation will not be in the offing any time soon. Each sectarian and political group brings to the debate its own agenda, and these are incompatible with each other. Rather than looking for areas where compromise might be found, each group has dug in and looks to demand further concessions before voting for the oil law.


This puts Washington and al-Maliki in the precarious position of pushing for any law to be passed, even if it may be against their interests in the long term. Washington has hinged its military surge on progress from al-Maliki's government to pass measures demonstrating the political reconciliation of Iraq's sectarian groups. In turn, al-Maliki must push for the passage of such measures out of fear of losing support from Washington.


This is a situation that the Kurdish, Sunni, and al-Sadr-led groups would like to use to their advantage. Because the debate has been framed in these zero-sum terms, there will invariably be a loser. This, by definition, makes the possibility of Iraq's oil law leading to national reconciliation zero. It is likely that the law will be passed in some form in the next few weeks, but its passage will only hasten rather than slow Iraq's drift toward factionalism.