Japan is getting ready for a major military build-up in anticipation of China becoming the major military power in East Asia in coming years. They've begun moving troops from the northern islands where they kept an eye on Russia to their southern island where they worry about Chinese incursions into disputed islands. China has claimed all of the South China Sea to the continental shelf. That is well beyond Japan's claim to the halfway between the two coasts. China's claims extend to very close to Okinawa and Japan's claims get very close to Taiwan. Meanwhile, both countries are drilling for natural gas along the Japanese claimed line, well inside the China line. See map. This can't be good for cordial relationships. Both countries are already diplomatically protesting the other's drilling in the area. This combine with the war fever being stirred up by the Chinese government doesn't bode well for a calm China Sea.
Sino-Japanese 'cold war' stirs new tensions
Simon Tisdall | January 18,
The Guardian - When Nobutaka Machimura, Japan's foreign minister, asked Israel to halt weapons sales to Japan's neighbours at the weekend, there was little doubt which particular neighbour he had in mind. And when Japan's defence ministry recently drew up contingency plans to deploy 55,000 troops in the event of an invasion of disputed islands off southern Japan, there was no question who the most likely invader would be. While the world watches China's rapid rise towards superpower status with awe, Japan, China's old enemy, watches with foreboding.
Paper no. 1204
27. 12. 2004
JAPAN’S REVISED THREAT PERCEPTIONS AND MILITARY UP-GRADATION PLANS: An Analysis
by Dr. Subhash Kapila
Introductory Background:
The Japanese government approved on December 10,2004, the following two documents covering new plans for Japan’s national security and defence planning:
A detail preview of these plans and significant raising of the Japanese military profile was covered in this author’s paper “Japan’s Assertive Approach in its Military Profile†(SAAG paper no.1121 dated 17-09-2004).
It is therefore not the intention of this paper to focus on details, but to analyse the significance of Japan’s revised threat perceptions and military up-gradation.
Japan’s Revised Threat Perceptions:
During the Cold War, Japan’s threat perceptions focused on the former Soviet Union. In line with this Japanese defense postures focused on the military build up of the Northern Island of Hokkaido as a main base for countering a possible Soviet threat, in terms of army and air force assets. The Japanese Navy in conjunction with the US Navy was tasked for preventing the break-out of Soviet Naval forces from the Vladivostok area into the Western Pacific.
In the post-Cold War era, Japan seemed to be diluting the Russian threat in a graduated manner and hinting that China was emerging as a major threat in the region.
The new “National Defense Programme Outline 2004†(NDPO) reflects Japan’s changed security environment in the nine years that have elapsed since the last NDPO was issued.
The new NDPO significantly revises Japan’s threat perceptions. In 2004 Japanese security calculus, China and North Korea emerge as significant threats.
The China Threat Perception:
The ‘China threat perception’ of Japan can best be illustrated by quoting from a XINHUA news dispatch which stresses that:
In an earlier report, a Japanese 10 member advisory panel to Japanese Prime Minister on security issues had recommended that China be treated as a major threat by Japan.
Japan’s threat perceptions from China arises from the possibility of the following conflictual scenarios:
Japanese threat perceptions get fuelled by Chinese nationalists landing on disputed Islands and the surreptious movements of Chinese submarines in Japanese waters.
That the Chinese threat perception weighs heavily on Japan can be seen by the following manifestations:
The North Korean Threat Perception:
Japan has characterized “military developments in North Korea (DPRK) as a serious destabilizing factor of the regionâ€. This basically arises from North Korea’s nuclear weapon’s programme, its IRBM capabilities and the missile tests flights over Japan sometime back.
The above developments have even persuaded the most diehard Japanese pacifists to consider Japan’s military up-gradation.
To cater for the North Korean threat contingency, Japan and USA have already finalized OP PLAN 5055- a joint operational plan to provide contingency actions in the event of emergency in North Korea.
It is being said that NDPO 2004 is also predicated on the above OP PLAN 5055.
Japan’s Threat Scenario’s Covered in NDPO:
The NDPO stresses that Japan must be prepared to meet the following scenarios:
To cater for the above scenarios the NDPO caters for:
Japan’s Plans for Missile Defence and Offensive Missile Capabilities:
Japan was already engaged with USA in the development of a Theatre Missile Defense System (TMD). This involves development of TMD systems aboard Japanese Navy ships along with ground deployment of advanced PATRIOT anti-missile systems.
Significantly, the Japanese government is said to be seriously considering the research of long-range precession missile technology in the draft MDP (2004-2009). It is proposed that such missiles be developed which can attack overseas targets including ballistic missile sites of the adversaries.
United States-Japan Defence Cooperation and Integration is the Mainstay of Japan’s Military Up-gradation Plans:
United States-Japan defense cooperation and greater integration of upgraded Japanese military capabilities with United States military operation plans seems to be the mainstay of Japan’s NDPO (2004). A sampling of statements to this effect from various Japanese documents and sources are quoted below to highlight this aspect:
These new Japanese plans lay the groundwork, it appears, for a more enhanced integration of Japan-US strategic efforts and operational plans for Asia-Pacific security.
Concluding Observations:
Japan’s military up-gradation should not logically raise any alarms. It needs to be viewed in the following perspectives:
In terms of Japan’s revised threat perceptions focusing on China and North Korea, Japan does not owe any apologies to anyone. China’s military up-gradation and propensity to use force cause concerns. North Koreas as a “failed state†with a nuclear arsenal, courtesy Pakistan which also is a failing state de-stablises East Asia. If Japan today is considering offensive missile capabilities, then China and North Korea are to be blamed.
Japan has no options but to go in for a greater integration of its military up-gradation plans United States operational plans for the Asia-Pacific. No longer can Japan confine itself to a reactive defensive posture.
Japan’s Director General of Defence Agency reflects the above when he says:
“ From a deterrent force to a responsive force, that is the future direction of our defense posture.â€
These may be the first stepping-stones towards Japan’s future independent defense capability.
(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email drsubhashkapila @yahoo.com)
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