Juan Cole is on top of the Sunni worries of the consequences of Iraq. What if Shiites controlled the entire northern flank of the Arab/Persian World? I don't understand their concern beyond some of the religious differences.
The Iraqi government formally requested that the Egyptian government encourage Iraqi Sunni Arabs to participate in the upcoming elections. Interim Defense Minister Hazem Shaalan is in Cairo for talks on this and other issues.
Since the neo-Baathists and Salafis who are leading the Iraqi Sunni Arab rebellion view the Mubarak government as a pharaonic dictatorship and servant of the United States, I very much doubt that Cairo has much influence with people in Mosul and Ramadi, on the face of it. But Shaalan is said by al-Hayat to also be inviting the Gulf Arab states to make the same appeal. I wonder if what Shaalan is really saying is that Egypt and the Arab Gulf should adopt Sunni Arab parties in Iraq as clients in the same way as Iran has some Shiite parties, to offset Tehran. This would require them to throw money and resources at specific personalities or groups.
Iran will not send full representation to the meeting of the foreign ministers of the six neighboring countries to Iraq scheduled for Thursday in Amman. It is miffed by the interview King Abdullah II gave to the Washington Post, where he forcefully accused Iranians of sending in a million stealth voters and trying to creat a Shiite crescent in the Near East that would stretch from Lebanon through Syria to Iraq and Iran.At a meeeting of foreign ministers, Iraq's Sunni-majority neighbors, including Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, joined Egypt in urging Sunni Arabs in Iraq to take part in the elections scheduled for January 30. Several Sunni-ruled countries in the region, including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, have significant Shiite populations that have largely been politically marginalized, and the Sunni Arab elites fear they will become more assertive if Iraq has an overwhelmingly Shiite government. The neighbors also fear that an Iraq where Sunni Arabs have no place at the table in government will continue to be a political, economic and security basket case.
For many Jordanians, for instance, Iraq's situation is extremely frustrating. They know that if the country came together and achieved basic stability, its oil revenues would allow it to get rich and it would provide a vast and rich market for Jordanian goods. Jordan would have an advantage over Iraq with regard to the price of labor, and coule act as a major engine of Jordanian economic growth. Jordanians thus see it as essential that their Sunni Arab counterparts (90% of Jordanians are Sunnis) join the new government and make it a success.
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