Citizen G'kar: Musings on Earth

October 15, 2005

The CIA is Not To Blame for the Iraq War

Contrary to the Bush spin machine, the CIA didn't screw up the intelligence anymore than most other western nations. Most of the west thought Iraq had WMDs. However, the UN inspectors correctly confirmed there were none. Like what was going on in the DoD Office of Special Plans, courageously parodied by Lieutenant Karen Kwiatkowski from the inside, there were neo-con plants who were squeezing the information into Bush desired outcomes. WMD info came forth, no matter how weak it was, concerns about making the peace fell to the back table, ignored. (Hattip to Atrios at Eschaton)
In fact, the CIA predicted the fiasco the Iraqi war has become. Here is the proof.
NY Times
...two classified reports prepared for President Bush in January 2003 had predicted that an American-led invasion of Iraq would increase support for political Islam and would result in a deeply divided Iraqi society prone to violent internal conflict. Those reports were by the National Intelligence Council, the high level group responsible for producing the government's most authoritative intelligence assessments.

[...]
It described as "seriously flawed, misleading and even wrong" most of the conclusions reached by the C.I.A. before the invasion of Iraq about President Saddam Hussein's nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs. But Mr. Kerr offered praise for prewar intelligence reports on issues other than Iraq's weapons programs, saying that they "accurately addressed such topics as how the war would develop and how Iraqi forces would or would not fight." Mr. Kerr also praised what he called perceptive analysis by intelligence agencies on the issue of ties between Iraq and Al Qaeda, a subject on which the agency clashed with the White House by concluding that there were no substantive links. Mr. Kerr said the agency had also accurately "calculated the impact of the war on oil markets" and "accurately forecast the reactions of the ethnic and tribal factions in Iraq." He credited what he called "strong regional and country expertise developed over time" within American intelligence agencies, as opposed to what he said had been heavy reliance on "technical analysis" for what proved to be misleading or inaccurate information about Iraq's weapons programs. MORE

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