Doublethink Dubya Now Giving Double Talk to Putin

A Softer Tone From Bush on Ukraine Points to a Quandary for U.S.

Publicly, the United States has condemned the official victory of Viktor F. Yanukovich, the prime minister and the candidate backed by Russia, over the official loser, the Western-leaning Viktor A. Yushchenko. Last week, Secretary of State Colin L. Powell made an unusually tough statement warning of "serious consequences" to the American-Ukrainian relationship if the allegations of fraud were not cleared up. Privately, administration officials have been in regular contact with Russian and Ukrainian officials to push for compromise. On Monday, Mr. Powell spoke to the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, as well as to Mr. Kuchma, and reaffirmed, Mr. Powell said, "that we hope that the Ukrainians would find a legal way forward." Administration officials said the initial tough statement by Mr. Powell, who will soon be succeeded by Condoleezza Rice, the national security adviser, was followed by the more modulated comments in Texas by Mr. Bush because, by the time the president spoke, the Ukrainians had made some moves toward compromise and Mr. Bush wanted to encourage their progress. But Democrats and other critics of the Bush administration said that the two statements reflected the perplexing situation the administration faced in managing the increasingly difficult relationship with Moscow, and that the president was putting up with too much bad behavior from Mr. Putin.

With the New Cold War back in the headlineshere and here, the Bush Administration is equivocating on what to do about Ukraine. First the wise heavy weight, outgoing Secretary of State Powell, lets Russia and Ukraine know where we stand. Then Bush makes his milk toast statement. I'd bet Rice will step up and make it clear as mud and Putin will think correctly he has Bush hand tied and Russian troops will march into Ukraine to support his buddy.

This president is totally incompetent. Given his performance, we may find ourself in a global war within four years. That oughta make the Christian Right happy, at least until Armageddon arrives with no Rapture.

Hamas Ready for Peace?

Jerusalem Post | Sheikh Yusef: Hamas ready for 'hudna'

Sheikh Hassan Yusef, head of the Hamas political bureau in Ramallah said Monday that Hamas is willing to declare a 10 year hudna, or ceasefire. In an interview with Israel Radio, the senior Hamas leader said that the Islamic movement would consider committing to a ceasefire in order to ultimately join a national unity government with the Palestinian leadership, as Hamas is interested in playing an active role in the new Palestinian government and participating in national decisions. He did not reject the possibility that Hamas would stop terror attacks against Israel during negotiations. However, a truce with Israel, Yusef said, would be dependant on an end of the Israeli occupation of the territories, release of security prisoners and "elimination of Israeli violence." When asked which borders "occupation" was referring to, he said the borders of 1967, not 1948.

Can it be that Hamas is ready for peace? What has changed? What is it that I heard Mahmoud Abbas say the other day?

Abbas had told the Palestinian parliament last Tuesday that he would follow in Arafat's footsteps and demand that Israel recognize the right of return of Palestinian refugees to Israel. But he told Newsweek that he did not make such a demand of Israel.

"I didn't say that," the PLO leader told the magazine. "I'm not talking about anything beyond the road map. According to the road map, there should be a just and agreed-upon solution for the refugees according to [UN Resolution] 194. President Bush said there should be a two-state solution; the Palestinian state should be independent, viable and contiguous."

So perhaps Abbas is willing to back off the traditional "right to return to Israel" demand for all Palestinian refugees. His statement to the Palestinian Parliament seemed to say otherwise. I wonder what Yusef believes? This issue just may decide the immediate future of the peace process.

The New Cold War: Billions for Missile Defense, peanuts for anti-terrorism

Star Wars Spending Spree - Billions for Missile Defense, peanuts for anti-terrorism. By Fred Kaplan

With all the concern about dirty bombs, bioterrorism, and suicide bombers smashing airplanes into power plants, the public has pretty much forgotten about the Pentagon's ballistic-missile-defense program. (Wasn't that some nutty dream of Ronald Reagan's?) So, it may come as a shock to learn that President Bush will spend $7.4 billion on R&D for missile defenses next year. That's twice the sum that Reagan spent on "star wars" in his final year of office, and for a system that remains sketchily defined and technologically dubious, against an unlikely threat that lies years, if not decades, off. Meanwhile, to defend against "weapons of mass destruction" that we all fear might blow up on American streets next week, the administration is spending, well, not quite zip, but far, far less than would be needed for a minimally serious effort, on technology that exists right now.

Why is it wise to start a new Cold War based on the promise of dubious technology, decades away, for a system that supporters admit would not be effective against Russian or Chinese missiles, but MIGHT help against a rogue nation with minimal technology?

One has to wonder if the Bush Administration really doesn't understand the war on terror. All they can get their thoughts around is defending against rogue states and nuclear war. So they recreate the world in an image they can understand.

WMDs camouflage real reasons behind Iraq invasion

It had been clear to me from the beginning that the war on Iraq was based on some neo-conservative ideology about remaking the politics of Middle East. But what wasn't clear to me was the initial objective. The strategic advantage of Iraq has been apparent since the beginning. It occurred to me that the US just wanted to be in a solid military position in the Middle East bordering on key countries. This author asserts the country the US was most interested in influencing was Saudi Arabia. That would be inconsistent with what I had understood as a personal alliance between Bush and Saudi Royalty. Perhaps what I've read about a divided Royal family was true. Rather than occupying Saudi Arabia, the US pulled out and encircled the country in order to influence its politics.

But I fail to imagine how it is that anyone can conceive of the situation in the Middle East as the "US winning" as the author states. While we may well influence the politics of the current governments in the Middle East, we have weakened those governments in ways that may not be apparent for years, perhaps a generation. Their people have become that much more jaded, disloyal, most likely to be jihadist, and more likely to support a theocratic government.

WMDs camouflage real reasons behind Iraq invasion

To disabuse Islam of the illusion that the US was weak of will and, on the evidence of Vietnam, unable to sustain a prolonged war, the Bush administration decided to strike its own devastating blow in response to September 11.

The invasion and speedy subjugation of Afghanistan staggered the jihadists. But the US, having succeeded only in dispersing al-Qa'ida and the Taliban, rather than eliminating them, believed it needed to strike another heavy blow.

By then it had identified the jihadist campaign as "a Saudi problem". Most of the September 11 suicide attackers had been Saudis. Bin Laden was a Saudi. Saudi money trails were everywhere. An invasion of Saudi Arabia presented the tactical problem of waging war against a country of vast area and the strategic one of disrupting the world's oil supplies.

The Americans had established and then strengthened a military presence in countries surrounding Saudi Arabia - Yemen, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait. Invasion of Iraq would complete the encirclement.

"From a purely military view," Friedman adds, "Iraq is the most strategic single country in the Middle East, [bordering] six other countries: Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Turkey and Iran."

So the US struck, with consequences unfolding nightly on our TV screens. Friedman believes the US-jihadist war hangs in the balance. However, the measured actions of the US during the past three years, including its strong military presence in the Middle East, have caused significant moderation of the position on global jihad of Saudi Arabia and other Muslim regimes.

The strategy of the jihadists has stalled: "Not a single regime has fallen to

al-Qa'ida ... There is no rising in the Islamic street. [There has been] complete failure of al-Qa'ida to generate the political response they were seeking ... At this point the US is winning ... The war goes on."

Blessed Be The Peacemakers

The Iroquois were at one time a war-like people who had been at inter­necine warfare and blood feuds for many generations. Finally a great leader emerged who found a way to bring peace to his people. The first step in this process is to recognize that the enemy is human and has suffered greatly. Today, our enemies have been demonized. Human suffering has been relegated to a faceless concept of "collateral damage". This war terror isn't about death and destruction, its about real human beings behaving in inhuman ways. Its about suffering on a scale thats never been experienced in the US. The tragedy of 9/11 has been repeated hundreds of times over in dozens of Iraqi cities.

This war will not be won on the death of our enemies. For that day will never come. Just like the crusades of old, each new generation will take up the cause and march forward into death and destruction. This war can only be won by winning the hearts and minds of the Muslim and American people. We are much more alike than we are different. We can peacefully co-exist in this world. All we have to do is commit ourselves to end the perenial slaughter in the Middle East. Peace will come with time, consistency of effort, and sincerity. Thanks to Ray Garraud for the link.



The Warriors Who Turned to Peace

North America has given only one philosophical tradition to the world, and that single philosophical tradition is pragmatism. For it to follow the principles of the Haudenosaunee Great Law, it has to be progressive pragmatism.

Progressive pragmatism seeks ends that are universal and that have the quality of win-win negotiations. Both idealism—the idea that God is on someone’s side—and vilification—the idea that one side is evil or fundamentally in the wrong—are barred from this process. Instead, this process lays out desirable outcomes that all sides can agree upon, and these must be adhered to through a set of protocols, because it is not possible to create peace by force and because peace requires rules that both sides embrace and honor.

It would have been interesting if the contemporary war on terrorism had been built on principles of pragmatism. Instead, the model most often heard is the crusader model, which assumes that the other side is wrong and evil. Both sides invoke God, and whatever victories are achieved, however pyrrhic, are attributed to God. The characteristic of such holy war is that it has no endgame until the warriors of one side eliminate the warriors of the other side. That never happened during the Crusades, and it wonÂ’t happen now. Wishing it so is not practical.

Progressive pragmatism ultimately is the most complex process devised so far by people who play politics. It would be a good thing if we could bring progressive pragmatism back, and abandon holy war by other names.

In Response to US Missile Defense, Russia Redeploys Multi-warhead Missiles

Asia Times Online - Russia ups the nuclear ante

After President George W Bush pulled out of the 1972 Antiballistic Missile Treaty in 2001 to pursue a new anti-missile defense program, Russia announced it no longer felt bound by previous agreements that prohibited missiles with multiple warheads. Russia has looked at equipping its new Topol missile with multiple warheads, an option that would reduce the weapon's vulnerability to the US missile defense system, which is designed to attack only one warhead at a time....

It has been also understood that Russia's promised "new nuclear missile-systems technologies" refer to the renovated RS-12M Topol-M, which the North Atlantic Treaty Organization nicknamed "SS-27" and was first tested in 1994. The Topol-M can be fired from silos or from mobile launchers. It is 75 feet long and has a range of 6,900 miles. The country now has some 40 Topol-M missile systems, with a further five to be added next year.

In its perceived drive to defeat the US antimissile defense program, Russia has also indicated plans to put dozens of previously stored multi-warhead SS-19 intercontinental ballistic missiles on combat duty. Putin previously stated that Russia has a "significant amount" of SS-19 intercontinental ballistic missiles that had been stored without fuel that had never previously been deployed - and thus not part of disarmament negotiations. Putin described the SS-19s as "the most powerful missiles in the world with unparalleled capability to overcome any anti-missile defense".

Looks to me like Dubya has restarted the Cold War. Russia has reactivated its spy activity, is building new and better nuclear missiles, redeploying its multiple warhead advanced SS-19. The US, bogged down in the quagmire of Iraq and experiencing an unprecidented deficit, now faces a new nuclear arms race. A bellicose North Korea with nuclear weapons and Iran and likely Brazil building capability to develop nuclear weapons makes the world more dangerous than it has ever been. Perhaps Europeans are right, Bush is the man most dangerous to world peace.

Apocalypse (Almost) Now

The New York Times > Opinion > Op-Ed Columnist: Apocalypse (Almost) Now

If America's secular liberals think they have it rough now, just wait till the Second Coming. The "Left Behind" series, the best-selling novels for adults in the U.S., enthusiastically depict Jesus returning to slaughter everyone who is not a born-again Christian. The world's Hindus, Muslims, Jews and agnostics, along with many Catholics and Unitarians, are heaved into everlasting fire: "Jesus merely raised one hand a few inches and . . . they tumbled in, howling and screeching."

Gosh, what an uplifting scene! If Saudi Arabians wrote an Islamic version of this series, we would furiously demand that sensible Muslims repudiate such hate mongering. We should hold ourselves to the same standard. Tim LaHaye and Jerry Jenkins, the co-authors of the series, have both e-mailed me (after I wrote about the "Left Behind" series in July) to protest that their books do not "celebrate" the slaughter of non-Christians but simply present the painful reality of Scripture.

For all the changes right wing religious extremists are attempting to impose on us, the wackiest is the belief that the Rapture and Apocalypse is at hand. While I don't have a complete understanding of this doctrine, I have gleaned some basic details. From their perspective, all Christians must prepare the world for Christ's second coming by taking over government posts and ensuring that Israel remains in the hands of the Jews. War is to break out over Israel somehow featuring the anti-Christ, ablaze in his evil. Just before the carnage, all "born again" Christians will be taken directly to heaven. Then, according to some versions, Christ himself wielding a sword will slaughter all the non-believers starting with the Jews.

What's really perplexing is how neo-conservatives, who include hawkish moderate Democrats, many of Jewish descent, and Israel can feel comfortable with this alliance of convenience. Given the fact that these fanatics WANT Israel to get into a war with its neighbors, one would think they would be very reluctant to get to cozy with them for fear war might be deliberately provoked to bring on the Rapture. Indeed, so far all of the warmongering by this group has resulted in a card blanc for Israel's offensive military action against whole neighborhoods in the West Bank and Gaza and leadership assassination. It appears that Israel is so isolated politically that they will take ANY ally no matter whom. So witness the questionable antics by Israeli mercenaries in Ivory Coast, the strange trading history between Iran and Israel, and the steady support they exchanged with white supremacist South Africa.

Although I consider myself a Christian, apparently I�m an unusual one. I have considerable difficulty imagining God could be, on one hand, omnipotent, omniscient, all merciful, and on the other judgmental and vengeful. That is inherently inconsistent. Also, why would God give us free will, limited intelligence, emotional instability and immaturity? So he can punish us later? God is a sadist? Imagine gentle Jesus with a sword covered with blood as he personally executes some 4 billion people. That�s an image of evil, not a deity.

So I�ve been wondering how they got all this from the same Bible. Even more, how did gentle Jesus inspire this fanaticism? I certainly didn�t read any such craziness in the New or Old Testament. Yet, some serious minded pious person interpreted what I read in a very different way. Somehow, the Prince of Peace has been turned into the worst serial killer ever. I�m sorry, I just don�t buy it.

So I wondered, is there some other source of information that would clarify just what the New Testament is supposed to mean. Then it dawned on me. Jesus lived a life of example. Certainly, looking at his words, his actions in the context of his culture would tell us best of all what He really meant. So I did a bit of research on the Web. It seems that almost all of the principal founders of what would later be called Christianity were Essenes--St. Ann, Joseph and Mary, John the Baptist, Jesus, and John the Evangelist.

While reading on the Essenes, I saw many parallels in the passages of the New Testament. Indeed, Jesus reflected his Essene roots in his example. I also was struck by many values reflected in the culture that contradict the behavior of our intolerant proselytizing friends.

They felt that they had been entrusted with a mission, which would turn out to be the founding of Christianity and of western civilization. They were supported in this effort by highly evolved beings who directed the brotherhood. They were true saints, Masters of wisdom, hierophants of the ancient arts of mastery.



They were not limited to a single religion, but studied all of them in order to extract the great scientific principles. They considered each religion to be a different stage of a single revelation�.

The life of the Essenes was perfectly organized in a hierarchy. There were those who lived in the villages surrounded by a low wall, completely cut-off from the cities, in the middle of nature. Their life was simple, austere and pious, lulled into a rhythm by the seasons, by the days of celebration, and by visitors. Others lived in the cities, in large buildings which belonged to the Community and which served simultaneously as their home, as an inn and as a hospital. Indeed, they devoted their time and their activity to healing the sick and to providing hospitality to strangers passing through. There were others who traveled the roads, circulating news and information around all of the centers spread out in every country. This is how the Master Jesus was able to go out into the world, benefiting from a minutely-detailed organization which operated to perfection�.

The white robe was a materialization of the power of his baptism and the purity of his soul, which had to protect him from the many contradictions of the world. The staff, or cane, which he also received on this occasion symbolized his knowledge of the secret laws of life and his ability to use them harmoniously for the successful accomplishment of his task. He was also required to take an oath to respect the earth as a living, sacred and intelligent being. In order to maintain contact with it, to honor it and to participate in its healthy evolution, he had to be in contact with the ground through his feet--and, sometimes, his whole body. This is why the Essenes were often barefoot�.

Each Essene was required to respect the privacy of others--their solitude, their intimate and private lives. Solitude was regarded as sacred, because, when one was alone with oneself, one was in the presence of God, the Sublime One, the Source. The life of a couple was also regarded as sacred, as was community life. These were the three degrees--one's private life corresponded to the inside of the temple; the inner life, to the couple; and the external life, to the community. The student was to look closely at himself in these three lives, and remain honest, morally upright, pure and authentic in all three.

There was a rule forbidding them to reveal the Teaching to people who were not prepared to receive it. The law of silence and discernment was strictly imposed. Thus, an Essene never tried to convert another person to any belief�.

The Essenes recognized the equality of
the sexes, and accorded to women, in the greatest secrecy, the place which was rightfully theirs. Thus, women were able to participate in all of the spiritual activities�.

The School strongly condemned slavery and all forms of servility. No Essene could have a servant; that was a sin. So was working only to make money--which, in the end, translates into a certain kind of slavery.

From http://www.essenespirit.com/index.html

The Essene lifestyle would not appeal widely to people even in Biblical times. Eating no meat or alcohol beverages would have been just the beginning of the adjustment. Communal living, foresaking wealth, and a value of feeding the poor, strangers and healing the sick was a life that was rewarding, but it was inconsistent with society as a whole.

Someone somewhere along the line, perhaps as early as the writings of St. Paul, the teachings and example of Jesus was adapted to fit the mainstream culture. While one can understand why they did that, you can see with your own eyes what was sacrificed in the process. Many, including myself, think the primary message was gutted by the act of "mainstreaming". This reinterpreting of the Bible from ones own perspective has continued to this day. The result is an understanding of the New Testament that is unrecognizable by the cultural context of its authors.

I wonder if this knowledge would have any effect on the Christian Right that has gone so far astray?

Israeli Linked Organization Threatens Blogger With Lawsuit

A former Israeli military intelligence officer is threatening Juan Cole with a SLAPP for making false statements. Juan not only stood by his statements, he added some more. He asks for an email campaign from fellow bloggers in support.

Informed Comment

I just checked my campus mail and found a letter in it from Colonel Yigal Carmon, late of Israeli military intelligence, now an official at the Middle East Media Research Organization, or MEMRI. He threatened me with a lawsuit over blog comments I made here at Informed Comment, reprinted at anti-war.com. This technique of the SLAPP or Strategic Lawsuits against Public Participation had already been pioneered by polluting industries against environmental activists, and now the pro-Likud lobby in the US has apparently decided to try it out against people like me.

I urge all readers to send messages of protest to <a href="mailto:memri@memri.org">memri@memri.org. Please be polite, and simply urge MEMRI, which has a major Web presence, to withdraw the lawsuit threat and to respect the spirit of the free sharing of ideas that makes the internet possible.

Bush's New Ally Is Thinking Empire Again

Coup in Kiev (washingtonpost.com)

UKRAINE FACED a fateful choice on Sunday: not just between two sharply opposed candidates in a presidential election runoff, but between two political systems. Opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko promised a genuine liberal democracy along Western lines, while Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych represented those forces that, backed by a neo-imperial Russia, would rule this large European nation through force and fraud. The outcome of the vote has brought this confrontation to a head. According to exit polls, the democratic opposition won handily, by 54 to 43 percent in one survey. But yesterday the government revealed its intent to steal the election, announcing that Mr. Yanukovych had a decisive lead in the vote count. Tens of thousands of outraged citizens filled the center of Kiev last night to oppose this authoritarian coup. The United States and other Western governments must do everything possible to support them.

Bush's buddy in the Kremlin, his new Ally, is showing his stripes again. Surely if Putin's ally in Ukraine is at all threatened, Putin will be happy to supply Russian troops to put down dissent. Effectively, Russia will begin to expand its empire again. Will Bush let him? Is there anything he can do anymore?

What better time is it for any rival of the US to rattle sabres than while the US military is bogged down in Iraq? North Korea is bellicose. Iran had been also until the Europeans lined up against them. China is talking war.

Could the quagmire in Iraq be the beginning of the end of the US super power status? Will the world be the same in five years? I'd say the answers are likely yes and no.

The Dollar's Decline Leads to Foreigners Selling US Stocks

Yahoo! News - Canada warns of looming trade war as Bush prepares to visit

Just a week before George W. Bush arrives for a feel-good visit with Paul Martin, Ottawa is talking tough about a possible trade war with the United States.



The federal government announced Tuesday that it is launching consultations with Canadians on possible retaliation over American duties. It's all about the Byrd Amendment, which allows American companies to receive anti-dumping and countervailing duties collected from foreign competitors - such as those on softwood lumber. The U.S. has failed to act on a World Trade Organization (news - web sites) ruling that the amendment is illegal.

"Retaliation is not the preferred course of action, but this is about respecting international trade laws," Trade Minister Jim Peterson said from Brazil, where he is on a trade mission.

It looks like Bush is about to snub Canada and dare them to initiate a trade war. I can't imagine any other outcome. This man doesn't admit mistakes and is already on record that he won't back down on this one. Again defying international law. Incredible arrogance!

Canada warns of looming trade war as Bush prepares to visit

Yahoo! News - Canada warns of looming trade war as Bush prepares to visit
Just a week before George W. Bush arrives for a feel-good visit with Paul Martin, Ottawa is talking tough about a possible trade war with the United States.
The federal government announced Tuesday that it is launching consultations with Canadians on possible retaliation over American duties. It's all about the Byrd Amendment, which allows American companies to receive anti-dumping and countervailing duties collected from foreign competitors - such as those on softwood lumber. The U.S. has failed to act on a World Trade Organization (news - web sites) ruling that the amendment is illegal.
"Retaliation is not the preferred course of action, but this is about respecting international trade laws," Trade Minister Jim Peterson said from Brazil, where he is on a trade mission.
It looks like Bush is about to snub Canada and dare them to initiate a trade war. I can't imagine any other outcome. This man doesn't admit mistakes and is already on record that he won't back down on this one. Again defying international law. Incredible arrogance!

What is The Real Story On the Economy?

kuro5hin.org ||

Elephants in the Living Room

The United States is facing the possibility of a severe economic correction. Yet most of the causes of such a correction are, for the most part, being completely ignored in preference to partisan bickering. It is the proverbial elephant in the living room - except it is not just one, but several elephants that everyone is doing their best to ignore. While the likelihood that any of these issues could result in disaster is low, these are issues worth taking the time to discuss.

What is the real story here? Some articles say doom and gloom, others say, all the old rules are out and things are working out ok. Well the pattern of extremes in opinions suggest to me one thing, the truth is somewhere between. I suspect we are teetering on the verge of a financial disaster, but its likely of the long range type, or at least less likely to be quick and disasterous. And I suspect that the rather drastic move to float the US dollar on the market and let it fall is an attempt to head off disaster. That solution may present significant risk as well. My little pea brain thinks there is some common sense in a weaker dollar. Trade deficits fall, US can now manufacture goods because it can compete worldwide again. There is less demand for imports and US can afford to buy US. But somehow I suspect its not that simple. Well, I can read more and look for those patterns in hopes of deciphering more from the propaganda, disinformation and missinformation out there.

A Huge Omnibus Funding Bill: Another Means to Undermine the Democratic Process

Analysis: $388B spending bill full of surprises

Congress came to a final agreement Saturday night on a massive $388 billion measure funding 13 federal departments for fiscal 2005, but not without some last-minute problems for a bill that contained a host of surprises for lawmakers. As is typical of a catchall omnibus appropriations bill encompassing all unapproved annual spending bills, it contains a multitude of provisions unknown to lawmakers when the around 1,689-page, 14-pound document was passed by the House and Senate.

These surprises, along with other actions taken by conservative Republicans this week, demonstrate the power conservatives will hold next year to both help and potentially hurt the Bush administration and GOP leadership's agenda. Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd of West Virginia attacked the bill in debate before passage as a "monstrosity," only two parts of which where debated in the Senate.

"There is not a single member in this body who can say that he or she has read this bill," Byrd noted on the Senate floor.

The Republicans have found a pretty effective way to undermine the Democratic process. They've created major funding omnibus bill that simply can't be reviewed in any kind of meaningful way before passage. It will be months before the real implications of this bill will be understood. Very likely, only Republican leadership, staffers and Administration strategists have a good understanding of what was done.

Every week we witness another means our way of life is being undermined. And few people are listenning.

Why Didn't Iraq Turn the Election?

This is a question I've been asking since that fateful night. Here is a great article that says a lot about how the Bush administration contained the content of the news. Its an important work, one that needs to be dissected and understood until we can stand toe to toe with the disinformation artists of the administration.
TomDispatch - Tomgram: Michael Massing on Iraq coverage and the election
In the end, the war in Iraq did not have the decisive impact on the election that many had expected. In the weeks before the vote there were the massacre of forty-nine Iraqi police trainees; a deadly attack inside the previously impenetrable Green Zone in Baghdad; the refusal by an army unit to carry out a supply mission on the grounds that it was too dangerous; the explosion of several car bombs at a ceremony where soldiers were handing out candy, killing dozens of children; the abduction of contractors, journalists, and aid workers, including the director of the CARE office in Baghdad; the release of a report holding the highest reaches of the Pentagon and the military responsible for the abuses at Abu Ghraib; a report by President Bush's hand-picked investigator confirming that Iraq had long ago lost its ability to produce weapons of mass destruction; and the spread of the insurgency to every corner of the country, bringing reconstruction to a virtual halt. All of this, in the end, counted for less to voters (if the exit polls are to be believed) than such issues as whether homosexuals should be allowed to marry and whether discarded embryos should be used for stem cell research.

What Happens if the Dollar Does Not Fall?

What Happens if the Dollar Does Not Fall?

Global: What Happens if the Dollar Does Not Fall?

Stephen Roach (New York)

The dollar is finally back in play again -- and possibly for some time to come. Provided the depreciation of the greenback occurs in an orderly and measured fashion, I continue to believe that this is good news for an unbalanced world economy. It is central to the adjustment process I have dubbed global rebalancing.

The global rebalancing framework views currency realignments as the functional equivalent of a shift in the world�s relative price structure. In that context, a weaker dollar is precisely what a lopsided, US-centric world needs. That�s not because of the sheer power of dollar depreciation itself. It�s that such a currency correction is an important signaling mechanism for adjustments in real interest rates, as well as shifts in the mix of global demand -- namely, spurring weaker domestic demand in the US and stronger internal demand elsewhere in the world (see my 19 November dispatch, �Why the World Needs a Weaker Dollar�). Only through such a realignment in the composition of global demand can the unprecedented dispersion of current account imbalances between deficit and surplus nations be narrowed.

A key risk to this scenario is that it has now become a consensus bet in financial markets. Even Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who argued earlier this year that there was ��little evidence of stress in funding US current account deficits� now seems resigned to a weaker dollar (see Greenspan�s �Lecture Before the Bundesbank� in Berlin on January 13, 2004 and, more recently, his �Remarks at the European Banking Congress� in Frankfurt on November 19, 2004). With such broad agreement on an important macro trend, this is where the contrarian is trained to pounce. And so it pays to ask, what happens if the dollar doesn�t fall?

The short answer, in my view, is trade frictions and protectionism. I reach that conclusion by underscoring the tradeoff between economics and politics as the means by which unprecedented global imbalances are likely to be vented. If pressures don�t give on one axis, I believe the impetus for rebalancing will then shift to the other axis. The biggest risk, in my view, occurs if the world�s major currencies don�t adjust. In that case, global imbalances will only continue to mount.

So maybe a drop in the dollar isn't so bad. I would hate to see protectionism and trade wars break out. Trade wars undermine the fragile fabric of understanding between nations and can lead to more extreme forms of conflict, including war. The interlocking economies in the world are the strongest reason for conflict to remain contained. In the past 50 years, the global economy has led to a European reluctance to join the US is global political adventures and conflicts. The more economically tied we are to China and Russia, the less likely there will be future conflict.

Enforcement of Civil Rights Law Declined Since '99

The New York Times > National > Enforcement of Civil Rights Law Declined Since '99, Study Finds
Federal enforcement of civil rights laws has dropped sharply since 1999, as the level of complaints received by the Justice Department has remained relatively constant, according a study released Sunday. Criminal charges of civil rights violations were brought against 84 defendants last year, down from 159 in 1999, according to Justice Department data analyzed by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse at Syracuse University....
Civil rights cases made up a tiny fraction of the Justice Department's total of 99,341 criminal prosecutions in 2003. The study found, however, that only civil rights and environmental prosecutions were down from 1999 to 2003 as the total caseload rose by about 10 percent.
Not surprisingly, the Bush administration has rolled back procecution of criminal and civil cases in civil rights and environmental law. Such a move is one I would expect. But there is nothing better than documentation to persuade a reluctant believer.