Pakistan arrests 'main operator' in Mumbai attacks

Image by Praram via Flickr

The Associated Press

Pakistan acknowledged for the first time that the Mumbai terrorist attacks were launched from its shores and at least partly plotted on its soil, saying Thursday that it had arrested most of the chief suspects including one described as "the main operator."
Interior Ministry chief Rehman Malik said Pakistan has started criminal proceedings against eight suspects -- some of them also named by India as the masterminds of the attacks -- but he reiterated that authorities needed more evidence from New Delhi to secure convictions.
The revelations suggest Pakistan is serious about punishing those behind the November attacks, which killed 164 people and stirred fear that the nuclear-armed neighbors could slide toward war and that Pakistan might be distracted from its struggle against the Taliban and al-Qaida.
India and the U.S. have pressed Pakistan hard to dismantle Lashkar-e-Taiba, a banned Pakistan-based group fighting Indian rule in the divided Kashmir region that is widely blamed for the Mumbai carnage. Islamabad and New Delhi have fought two out of their three wars since 1947 over the region.
India's Foreign Ministry called Pakistan's announcement "a positive development" and said it would consider Islamabad's request for further information.
Malik said investigators had traced a boat engine used by the attackers to sail from Pakistan to India and busted two hideouts of the suspects near the southern city of Karachi.
Other leads pointed to Europe and the United States, and Malik said Pakistan would ask the FBI for help.
"I want to assure the international community, I want to assure all those who have been victims of terrorism that we mean business," Malik said, waving a copy of Pakistan's initial findings at reporters gathered inside his ministry.
"We will continue our investigation, but we want tenable evidence from India. We want full cooperation from India so that this kind of ring be smashed."
India says all 10 gunmen -- only one of whom was captured alive -- were Pakistanis and that their handlers in Pakistan had kept in close touch with them by phone during the three-day assault.
New Delhi provided a dossier of evidence to Islamabad, testing Pakistan's insistence that it would do all in its power to punish those responsible -- and that it has truly abandoned its past sponsorship of Islamist militants including the Taliban.
In Pakistan's first detailed response, Malik said criminal cases had been opened against eight suspects on charges of "abetting, conspiracy and facilitation" of a terrorist act.
He said six of them were in custody, including Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi and Zarrar Shah, both Lashkar-e-Taiba leaders named by India as the masterminds of the attack, and a person who sent an e-mail claiming responsibility for the attacks.
Indian media said at the time that they received an e-mail in the name of the previously unknown Deccan Mujahideen -- a name which suggested an Indian rather than Pakistani group was behind the attacks and which now appears to have been a decoy.
Malik said the culprits were "non-state actors," a phrase used by Pakistani authorities to counter allegations that its intelligence agencies had a hand in the attacks.
Malik said the assailants used three boats to travel from Pakistan to Mumbai.
He said detectives had traced an engine recovered from one of the vessels to a shop in the southern Pakistani port city of Karachi. He said the shopkeeper had provided the phone number of the buyer which led to a bank account in the name of Hammad Amin Sadiq.
Malik said authorities had arrested Sadiq and obtained from him information that led them to bust two "hide-outs of the terrorists," one in Karachi and one about two hours drive away.
He described Sadiq, a 37-year-old who had been living in Karachi, as "the main operator" but didn't elaborate.
He said the detainees had told of how the group used a spot on the Pakistani coast to practice their sea-borne attack.
To stiffen its case, Pakistan was sending 30 questions to India about the attacks, Malik said. Among the additional details sought are the DNA of the 10 gunmen and information on intercepted phone conversations between the militants and their handlers.
He also asked New Delhi to investigate what contacts -- and help -- the attackers had inside India. The terrorists also used phones with Indian SIM cards, he noted. Their two suspected handlers are still at large.
India's Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the government will consider Islamabad's request. "After that examination, we will share whatever we can with Pakistan," the statement said.
On Thursday, Malik also suggested a wider international dimension to the crime.
One suspect, Javed Iqbal, had been "lured" back from Barcelona, Spain, where he had been living, and was now in Pakistani custody. While in Spain, Iqbal had arranged Internet telephone accounts used in the attacks and bills had been paid in Italy, Malik said.
Suspects also used a digital teleconferencing system whose service provider is based in Houston, Texas, while a Thuraya phone was issued in a Middle Eastern country, he said.
Other bills were paid by a company in Islamabad and two people have been arrested as a result, Malik said.
"It is not only Pakistan, but the system of the other countries has also been used," Malik said.
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Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

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• Pakistan arrests alleged Mumbai attacks ringleader (guardian.co.uk)
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Pakistan arrests 'main operator' in Mumbai attacks

Image by Praram via Flickr

The Associated Press

Pakistan acknowledged for the first time that the Mumbai terrorist attacks were launched from its shores and at least partly plotted on its soil, saying Thursday that it had arrested most of the chief suspects including one described as "the main operator."
Interior Ministry chief Rehman Malik said Pakistan has started criminal proceedings against eight suspects -- some of them also named by India as the masterminds of the attacks -- but he reiterated that authorities needed more evidence from New Delhi to secure convictions.
The revelations suggest Pakistan is serious about punishing those behind the November attacks, which killed 164 people and stirred fear that the nuclear-armed neighbors could slide toward war and that Pakistan might be distracted from its struggle against the Taliban and al-Qaida.
India and the U.S. have pressed Pakistan hard to dismantle Lashkar-e-Taiba, a banned Pakistan-based group fighting Indian rule in the divided Kashmir region that is widely blamed for the Mumbai carnage. Islamabad and New Delhi have fought two out of their three wars since 1947 over the region.
India's Foreign Ministry called Pakistan's announcement "a positive development" and said it would consider Islamabad's request for further information.
Malik said investigators had traced a boat engine used by the attackers to sail from Pakistan to India and busted two hideouts of the suspects near the southern city of Karachi.
Other leads pointed to Europe and the United States, and Malik said Pakistan would ask the FBI for help.
"I want to assure the international community, I want to assure all those who have been victims of terrorism that we mean business," Malik said, waving a copy of Pakistan's initial findings at reporters gathered inside his ministry.
"We will continue our investigation, but we want tenable evidence from India. We want full cooperation from India so that this kind of ring be smashed."
India says all 10 gunmen -- only one of whom was captured alive -- were Pakistanis and that their handlers in Pakistan had kept in close touch with them by phone during the three-day assault.
New Delhi provided a dossier of evidence to Islamabad, testing Pakistan's insistence that it would do all in its power to punish those responsible -- and that it has truly abandoned its past sponsorship of Islamist militants including the Taliban.
In Pakistan's first detailed response, Malik said criminal cases had been opened against eight suspects on charges of "abetting, conspiracy and facilitation" of a terrorist act.
He said six of them were in custody, including Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi and Zarrar Shah, both Lashkar-e-Taiba leaders named by India as the masterminds of the attack, and a person who sent an e-mail claiming responsibility for the attacks.
Indian media said at the time that they received an e-mail in the name of the previously unknown Deccan Mujahideen -- a name which suggested an Indian rather than Pakistani group was behind the attacks and which now appears to have been a decoy.
Malik said the culprits were "non-state actors," a phrase used by Pakistani authorities to counter allegations that its intelligence agencies had a hand in the attacks.
Malik said the assailants used three boats to travel from Pakistan to Mumbai.
He said detectives had traced an engine recovered from one of the vessels to a shop in the southern Pakistani port city of Karachi. He said the shopkeeper had provided the phone number of the buyer which led to a bank account in the name of Hammad Amin Sadiq.
Malik said authorities had arrested Sadiq and obtained from him information that led them to bust two "hide-outs of the terrorists," one in Karachi and one about two hours drive away.
He described Sadiq, a 37-year-old who had been living in Karachi, as "the main operator" but didn't elaborate.
He said the detainees had told of how the group used a spot on the Pakistani coast to practice their sea-borne attack.
To stiffen its case, Pakistan was sending 30 questions to India about the attacks, Malik said. Among the additional details sought are the DNA of the 10 gunmen and information on intercepted phone conversations between the militants and their handlers.
He also asked New Delhi to investigate what contacts -- and help -- the attackers had inside India. The terrorists also used phones with Indian SIM cards, he noted. Their two suspected handlers are still at large.
India's Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the government will consider Islamabad's request. "After that examination, we will share whatever we can with Pakistan," the statement said.
On Thursday, Malik also suggested a wider international dimension to the crime.
One suspect, Javed Iqbal, had been "lured" back from Barcelona, Spain, where he had been living, and was now in Pakistani custody. While in Spain, Iqbal had arranged Internet telephone accounts used in the attacks and bills had been paid in Italy, Malik said.
Suspects also used a digital teleconferencing system whose service provider is based in Houston, Texas, while a Thuraya phone was issued in a Middle Eastern country, he said.
Other bills were paid by a company in Islamabad and two people have been arrested as a result, Malik said.
"It is not only Pakistan, but the system of the other countries has also been used," Malik said.
Hosted by Google
Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

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• Pakistan arrests alleged Mumbai attacks ringleader (guardian.co.uk)
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Study finds bias in Twin Cities mortgages

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StarTribune.com

Minority members who live in highly segregated neighborhoods in the Twin Cities area are caught coming and going.
Regardless of their income, they're more likely to be denied a mortgage. And if they can get a mortgage, they're more likely to pay a higher interest rate. Those issues contribute to much higher defaults and foreclosures in their neighborhoods.
Those are the conclusions of a study released today by the Institute on Race and Poverty at the University of Minnesota's Law School, which analyzed data provided by mortgage lenders under a federal mandate called the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA).
Myron Orfield, an associate law professor and co-author of the study, said that although it was no surprise that minority members in the Twin Cities area were treated differently by mortgage lenders, he was shocked at how pervasive the problem is even among high-income residents.
"It's a piece of a really deep problem of racial segregation we've never come to terms with," Orfield said.
According to the report, blacks are five times more likely to receive a subprime home purchase loan than whites, while Hispanics were four times more likely and Asians were twice as likely. In addition, the report said that high-income black, Hispanic and Asian applicants have a higher denial rate for purchases and refinances than even low-income whites.
Paul Schuster, vice president of Marketplace Home Mortgage and president of the Minnesota Mortgage Association, said there's no denying that some borrowers have been overcharged. But he cautioned that HMDA doesn't collect enough information to draw the conclusions cited in the report.
'Many factors' in loans
"There are many factors that go into a loan and a loan decision," Schuster said. "And the HMDA doesn't tell the whole story."

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Study finds bias in Twin Cities mortgages

Image via Wikipedia

StarTribune.com

Minority members who live in highly segregated neighborhoods in the Twin Cities area are caught coming and going.
Regardless of their income, they're more likely to be denied a mortgage. And if they can get a mortgage, they're more likely to pay a higher interest rate. Those issues contribute to much higher defaults and foreclosures in their neighborhoods.
Those are the conclusions of a study released today by the Institute on Race and Poverty at the University of Minnesota's Law School, which analyzed data provided by mortgage lenders under a federal mandate called the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA).
Myron Orfield, an associate law professor and co-author of the study, said that although it was no surprise that minority members in the Twin Cities area were treated differently by mortgage lenders, he was shocked at how pervasive the problem is even among high-income residents.
"It's a piece of a really deep problem of racial segregation we've never come to terms with," Orfield said.
According to the report, blacks are five times more likely to receive a subprime home purchase loan than whites, while Hispanics were four times more likely and Asians were twice as likely. In addition, the report said that high-income black, Hispanic and Asian applicants have a higher denial rate for purchases and refinances than even low-income whites.
Paul Schuster, vice president of Marketplace Home Mortgage and president of the Minnesota Mortgage Association, said there's no denying that some borrowers have been overcharged. But he cautioned that HMDA doesn't collect enough information to draw the conclusions cited in the report.
'Many factors' in loans
"There are many factors that go into a loan and a loan decision," Schuster said. "And the HMDA doesn't tell the whole story."

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• U Of Minnesota Institute On Race And Poverty Reports Dismal Results For Charter Schools (medicalnewstoday.com)
• The new rules of mortgage lending (money.cnn.com)

Right Wing Sweeps Israel; Racialist Avigdor Lieberman Kingmaker Two State Solution Dead, Challenge to Obama

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Informed Comment

The outcome of the Israeli election has sounded the death knell for the two-state solution. There are not 61 votes for it in the new Knesset of 120 seats. A good 64 of the just-elected and/or re-elected Members of Parliament favor accelerated Israeli colonization of the West Bank and oppose Palestinian statehood. Most militant of all is Avigdor Lieberman, a former bouncer from Moldova who has risen in Israeli politics on a platform of racial hatred for Israeli-Palestinians (20% of the population), whom he has urged be "executed" or made to take loyalty oaths, stripped of their citizenship and possibly transferred to the Palestine Authority.
With Lieberman emerging as kingmaker in the new government, logically speaking, there are only three other plausible future relationships of Israel and the Palestinians:
1. Apartheid, with Israeli citizens dominating stateless Palestinians and controlling their borders, land, water and air. Apartheid would be accelerated under Lieberman's baleful influence. Over time, this outcome would break down, since it will be unacceptable to the rest of the world over the coming decades).
2. Expulsion. The Israelis could try to violently expel the Palestinians (and possibly Israeli-Palestinians as well), creating a massive new wave of refugees in Jordan or Egypt's Sinai. (This option would almost certainly end the peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan and might well push the Arab states into the arms of Iran, creating a powerful anti-Israel military coalition and a huge set of threats to the United States.)
3. One State. The Israelis could be forced over time, by economic and technological boycotts, to grant citizenship to the Palestinians of the occupied territories.
Some Neoconservatives have proposed that Jordan could take back part of the West Bank and Egypt could take back the Gaza Strip. However, the Jordanian and Egyptian regimes will absolutely not do so, leading back to option (2) above. Jordan's government is based on the East Bank, Bedouin-origin population and has anxieties about the 60 percent of the population that is already of Palestinian origin. Egypt's relatively secular elites are afraid of Muslim radicalism and would not want to have Hamas become part of Egypt. Both Egypt and Jordan bought into the Arab League position that the PLO is the only legitimate representative of the Palestinian people, and they cannot go against this principle without enormous trouble, even from their own populations, who engaged in huge protests during the recent Gaza war against these governments continuing to have diplomatic relations with Israel.
Since President Obama sent out George Mitchell to attempt to kickstart the peace process and get back on track to a two-state solution, both have now had the rug pulled out from under tham by an Israeli public moving to the far right.
Despite the vote tallies being in, it still is not clear who will form the next government in Israel.
Estimates of the seats won by leading parties in the Israeli elections pointed to a huge shift rightward.
Kadima: 28
Likud: 27
Beitenu: 15
Labor: 13
Arabs 9
According to AFP N. America service, Kadima leader Tzipi Livni said, "Today the people have chosen Kadima . . ." She called on Binyamin Netanyahu of the Likud Party to join in a government of national unity (with herself as prime minister). It may be sort of like when Hillary Clinton offered Obama vice president.
Livni's problem is that if she tries for a right-of-center coalition with the left, she can only get 47 seats. The 9 Arab representatives would not formally join her coalition and now hate her because she was among the leaders of the great Gaza Massacre.
Last week, the Arab Members of the Knesset (parliament) let her have it:
' Livni will not be able to count on the support of the three Arab factions, whose MKs are still upset at her for her role in Operation Cast Lead and for saying in December that in the event of the formation of a Palestinian state, the national aspirations of Israeli Arabs "lie elsewhere."
"What Livni said about us is worse than Lieberman," United Arab List-Ta'al MK Ahmed Tibi said on Saturday night. "That's why we won't recommend to Peres that Livni form a government."
Hadash chairman Muhammad Barakeh said that "Tzipi Livni is not an option for us and neither is Barak or Netanyahu. I don't see us recommending someone who supported the war."
Kadima officials responded that such speculation did not matter, because the factions would reconsider their views if Livni won the election. '
But Kadima leaders may hope that the Arabs will vote with them because they have no place else togo. (Israel is 20% Arab, which should yield 24 seats in the Knesset, but only 9 were apparently elected, down from 12. Attempts were made to disqualify some Arab parties from running, but the Supreme Court struck them down)
Even if the Arabs changed their minds and tacitly supported Livni, that still only gets her, de facto, to 56. But she would need at least 61 to form a government and govern, meaning she'd have to attract at least one small rightwing party into her coalition. But that party would then have a veto because its defection would cause the government to fall. Livni said, at least, that she wanted to stop the Israeli settlement of the West Bank and even move some of the more exposed settlers back to Israel, by force if necessary. None of the small rightwing parties that might join her government and get her over 61 would accept this platform.
CBS explains Livni's difficulties going forward.

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Right Wing Sweeps Israel; Racialist Avigdor Lieberman Kingmaker Two State Solution Dead, Challenge to Obama

Image via Wikipedia

Informed Comment

The outcome of the Israeli election has sounded the death knell for the two-state solution. There are not 61 votes for it in the new Knesset of 120 seats. A good 64 of the just-elected and/or re-elected Members of Parliament favor accelerated Israeli colonization of the West Bank and oppose Palestinian statehood. Most militant of all is Avigdor Lieberman, a former bouncer from Moldova who has risen in Israeli politics on a platform of racial hatred for Israeli-Palestinians (20% of the population), whom he has urged be "executed" or made to take loyalty oaths, stripped of their citizenship and possibly transferred to the Palestine Authority.
With Lieberman emerging as kingmaker in the new government, logically speaking, there are only three other plausible future relationships of Israel and the Palestinians:
1. Apartheid, with Israeli citizens dominating stateless Palestinians and controlling their borders, land, water and air. Apartheid would be accelerated under Lieberman's baleful influence. Over time, this outcome would break down, since it will be unacceptable to the rest of the world over the coming decades).
2. Expulsion. The Israelis could try to violently expel the Palestinians (and possibly Israeli-Palestinians as well), creating a massive new wave of refugees in Jordan or Egypt's Sinai. (This option would almost certainly end the peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan and might well push the Arab states into the arms of Iran, creating a powerful anti-Israel military coalition and a huge set of threats to the United States.)
3. One State. The Israelis could be forced over time, by economic and technological boycotts, to grant citizenship to the Palestinians of the occupied territories.
Some Neoconservatives have proposed that Jordan could take back part of the West Bank and Egypt could take back the Gaza Strip. However, the Jordanian and Egyptian regimes will absolutely not do so, leading back to option (2) above. Jordan's government is based on the East Bank, Bedouin-origin population and has anxieties about the 60 percent of the population that is already of Palestinian origin. Egypt's relatively secular elites are afraid of Muslim radicalism and would not want to have Hamas become part of Egypt. Both Egypt and Jordan bought into the Arab League position that the PLO is the only legitimate representative of the Palestinian people, and they cannot go against this principle without enormous trouble, even from their own populations, who engaged in huge protests during the recent Gaza war against these governments continuing to have diplomatic relations with Israel.
Since President Obama sent out George Mitchell to attempt to kickstart the peace process and get back on track to a two-state solution, both have now had the rug pulled out from under tham by an Israeli public moving to the far right.
Despite the vote tallies being in, it still is not clear who will form the next government in Israel.
Estimates of the seats won by leading parties in the Israeli elections pointed to a huge shift rightward.
Kadima: 28
Likud: 27
Beitenu: 15
Labor: 13
Arabs 9
According to AFP N. America service, Kadima leader Tzipi Livni said, "Today the people have chosen Kadima . . ." She called on Binyamin Netanyahu of the Likud Party to join in a government of national unity (with herself as prime minister). It may be sort of like when Hillary Clinton offered Obama vice president.
Livni's problem is that if she tries for a right-of-center coalition with the left, she can only get 47 seats. The 9 Arab representatives would not formally join her coalition and now hate her because she was among the leaders of the great Gaza Massacre.
Last week, the Arab Members of the Knesset (parliament) let her have it:
' Livni will not be able to count on the support of the three Arab factions, whose MKs are still upset at her for her role in Operation Cast Lead and for saying in December that in the event of the formation of a Palestinian state, the national aspirations of Israeli Arabs "lie elsewhere."
"What Livni said about us is worse than Lieberman," United Arab List-Ta'al MK Ahmed Tibi said on Saturday night. "That's why we won't recommend to Peres that Livni form a government."
Hadash chairman Muhammad Barakeh said that "Tzipi Livni is not an option for us and neither is Barak or Netanyahu. I don't see us recommending someone who supported the war."
Kadima officials responded that such speculation did not matter, because the factions would reconsider their views if Livni won the election. '
But Kadima leaders may hope that the Arabs will vote with them because they have no place else togo. (Israel is 20% Arab, which should yield 24 seats in the Knesset, but only 9 were apparently elected, down from 12. Attempts were made to disqualify some Arab parties from running, but the Supreme Court struck them down)
Even if the Arabs changed their minds and tacitly supported Livni, that still only gets her, de facto, to 56. But she would need at least 61 to form a government and govern, meaning she'd have to attract at least one small rightwing party into her coalition. But that party would then have a veto because its defection would cause the government to fall. Livni said, at least, that she wanted to stop the Israeli settlement of the West Bank and even move some of the more exposed settlers back to Israel, by force if necessary. None of the small rightwing parties that might join her government and get her over 61 would accept this platform.
CBS explains Livni's difficulties going forward.

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• A toxic force rises in Israel (guardian.co.uk)
• Israel's age of fragmentation (guardian.co.uk)
• The Netanyahu Nightmare (andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com)
• As Israel Votes (andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com)
• Israel votes in knife-edge election (guardian.co.uk)
• Dangerous right turn (guardian.co.uk)

The Rorschach Geithner plan

Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com

An old joke from my younger days: What do you get when you cross a Godfather with a deconstructionist? Someone who makes you an offer you can't understand.
I found myself remembering that joke when trying to make sense of the Geithner financial rescue plan. It's really not clear what the plan means; there's an interpretation that makes it not too bad, but it's not clear if that's the right interpretation.
The plan deserves praise for what isn't in it, at least as far as I can tell. There doesn't seem to be provision for mass purchases of toxic waste at premium prices; there also doesn't seem to be a massive "ring-fencing" guarantee against private losses on bad assets. In that sense the plan is better than what the last few weeks of leaks led us to expect.
What is in it, in reverse order:
1. Super-TALF: a big expansion of the Fed's quantitative easing, with Treasury backing. I'm OK with that.
2. Private-public purchases of questionable assets; as I understand it, private investors would be the junior partners, so this is probably not a big giveaway (unless there's huge public financing, in which case it amounts to ring-fencing after all). I also suspect it wouldn't accomplish much, but no harm, no foul.
3. Stress test: everything depends on how this is actually implemented. What happens if, or more likely when, a major money center bank is stress-tested and found to have negative net worth? One possibility is that the auditors are told to come up with a different answer; that's a big concern. The other is that the bank is effectively nationalized; as I read the language that could be achieved as part of the public capital injection.
So what is the plan? I really don't know, at least based on what we've seen today. But maybe, maybe, it's a Trojan horse that smuggles the right policy into place.

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• Geithner Reax II (andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com)
• U.S. Bank Bailout to Rely in Part on Private Money (nytimes.com)

The Rorschach Geithner plan

Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com

An old joke from my younger days: What do you get when you cross a Godfather with a deconstructionist? Someone who makes you an offer you can't understand.
I found myself remembering that joke when trying to make sense of the Geithner financial rescue plan. It's really not clear what the plan means; there's an interpretation that makes it not too bad, but it's not clear if that's the right interpretation.
The plan deserves praise for what isn't in it, at least as far as I can tell. There doesn't seem to be provision for mass purchases of toxic waste at premium prices; there also doesn't seem to be a massive "ring-fencing" guarantee against private losses on bad assets. In that sense the plan is better than what the last few weeks of leaks led us to expect.
What is in it, in reverse order:
1. Super-TALF: a big expansion of the Fed's quantitative easing, with Treasury backing. I'm OK with that.
2. Private-public purchases of questionable assets; as I understand it, private investors would be the junior partners, so this is probably not a big giveaway (unless there's huge public financing, in which case it amounts to ring-fencing after all). I also suspect it wouldn't accomplish much, but no harm, no foul.
3. Stress test: everything depends on how this is actually implemented. What happens if, or more likely when, a major money center bank is stress-tested and found to have negative net worth? One possibility is that the auditors are told to come up with a different answer; that's a big concern. The other is that the bank is effectively nationalized; as I read the language that could be achieved as part of the public capital injection.
So what is the plan? I really don't know, at least based on what we've seen today. But maybe, maybe, it's a Trojan horse that smuggles the right policy into place.

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• Geithner's Plan: Bail out the Banks, Keep the same people in charge and let them do what they want (firedoglake.com)
• Timothy Geithner Announces New Financial Stability Plan (businesspundit.com)
• Geithner Reax II (andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com)
• U.S. Bank Bailout to Rely in Part on Private Money (nytimes.com)

Iran's new satellite challenges China

Image via Wikipedia

Asia Times Online

A provocative new satellite named Omid (Hope), which was launched by Iran last week, has certainly made its mark in space. For China, Omid represents an unusual opportunity, indeed a gift from Iran. The longstanding debate about China's role with Iran in space has suddenly changed.
Now China has a chance to step onto the world stage as the world evaluates what Iran is doing, and whether or not China is true to its word when it talks about its peaceful activities in space - which definitely involves its longstanding relationship with Iran.
Unfortunately, China often does a poor job of getting its message out, and Beijing is not getting the job done here either. In other
words, China can see the opportunity straight ahead, but for a variety of reasons, it risks dropping the ball altogether.
Before Omid, China's ongoing and often covert support of Iran's development of ballistic missile technology was always a hot topic whenever Iranian missile and space programs were on the table. Now, China's behind-the-scenes role has been almost forgotten entirely.
With its new satellite in orbit, the focus is both on the state of Iran's ballistic missile systems, and on how soon Israel will wipe out all of Iran's space facilities along with all of its nuclear facilities. By the way, this writer spotted Omid for the first time last Thursday, early in the evening, as it flew by low to the horizon well northwest of Maine.
Last time we checked, no mention whatsoever of it appears on the English-language section of the Iranian Space Agency (ISA) website, which, like the website maintained by the China National Space Administration, is of very limited value to the international community of space enthusiasts.
Iran is pursuing basic research in space technology via Omid. At least that is what Parviz Tarikhi, a senior ISA official who heads the Microwave Remote Sensing Department at the Mahdasht Satellite Receiving Station in Iran, wants the world to believe.
Tarikhi responded almost immediately via e-mail to several questions submitted to him by Asia Times Online. He is no doubt aware that his core response may not sit well with critics on the far right, particularly those who are now going to have to step back and at least acknowledge that Iran's space program is really no different than any other nation's.
The ISA has been involved in various peaceful United Nations-sponsored joint space activities for decades, and Iran is a participant in another forum, the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization (APSCO). China organized ASPCO in 2005, and it now includes Iran along with Bangladesh, Indonesia, Mongolia, Pakistan, Peru, Thailand and Turkey.
While there will be no attempt made here to somehow assert that China exerts any real influence over Iran's activities in space via APSCO, China stands to benefit enormously from anything that calls attention to, or otherwise underscores, China's efforts to foster the civilian and peaceful side of the global dual-use space technology agenda. As an established regional space forum in Asia, APSCO has served this purpose well.
Besides having much to say about APSCO, Tarikhi's broader track record to date cannot be dismissed or overlooked. He has contributed years of service to the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UN-COPUOS). Among other things, he co-chaired the Action Team of UNISPACE-III which has tried to develop a comprehensive worldwide environmental monitoring strategy. He and other ISA personnel have worked closely with senior officials from countries like Nigeria and Indonesia, something that US President Barack Obama might ponder.
In fact, as a senior member of the ISA team, Tarikhi's record embodies the ISA's commitment to developing assets in space both for peaceful purposes and for use as part of various multinational space projects. In an article published in "Position" magazine last June entitled, "Iran's Ambitions in Space" Tarikhi emphasized that "Iran has pursued a space program for many years. It first embraced the idea of using space and its technologies for peaceful purposes in 1958, when it joined 17 other countries to establish the UN ad hoc Committee for International Cooperation on Space (which later became UN-COPUOS)."
"However, it was the launch [by the US] of ERTS - which later became Landsat-1 - in 1972 that spurred real interest in remote sensing. Iran built a facility at Mahdasht, 65 kilometers west of Tehran, to obtain remote sensing imagery from the satellite," he wrote.
According to Tarikhi, satellite-based remote sensing is one of ISA's top priorities.
"Although the Mahdasht Receiving Station in northwest of Tehran was one of the first receiving stations around the world to receive [data and imagery] from Landsat, it failed to continue its activity properly and favorably due to the advent of the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1978," said Tarikhi.
"This raised the idea of having self-owned satellites to secure the needs of the country for remote sensing data in addition to other demands [including] communications and broadcasting, for instance." [1]
Omid is described by Tarikhi as an experimental satellite that is taking orbital measurements while opening the door to "more sophisticated systems carrying the remote sensing tools as well". There is a definite link between what the ISA is pursuing in space via Omid, and what APSCO sees as one of its top priorities.
"APSCO plans to develop remote sensing assets as one of its primary activities and programs. It would be beneficial for its members and would bring to them lots of economic and social benefits," said Tarikhi.
"APSCO could be a successful organization perhaps like the European Space Agency. The [growing interest in] space science and technologies in the Asia Pacific Region is considerable. There are big players like China, India, Japan and Australia in the space arena in the Asia-Pacific Region. South Korea, Thailand, Pakistan and Iran are advancing rapidly. If these enthusiastic nations can join forces, and pool their potential and their capabilities in this regard, they will save a lot of time and money while benefiting greatly from the collective synergy and outcome."
Far too often, discussions of military space applications and the phenomenon of space weaponization take on a life of their own, totally excluding the importance of scientific and basic research activities in space in the process.
"Space technology applications can be oriented for both civil and non-civil uses. It is up to us to make a selection, and either pave the way, or place limitations and obstacles for each of these uses and orientations," said Tarikhi. "It is more than wise to use such wonderful possibilities for the benefit of welfare and wellness of humanity - and for its sustainable development - at the national and global level."
"In the meantime, it should be noted that such achievements require a high degree of expertise, abilities and comprehensive knowledge about the subject," Tarikhi adds.
Highly specialized and talented human resources must emerge in each country, according to Tarikhi , who acknowledges that one cannot ignore the attitudes and visions of leaders in each nation who also influence and contribute to the pace, progress and developmental objectives of any nation's space program.
Iran's Omid project clearly supports the objectives of APSCO, and shares elements with another Chinese space initiative known as the Multilateral Cooperation on Space Technology Applications initiative in the Asia-Pacific region (AP-MCSTA). Iran has participated in this project along with China and Thailand, to name a few. These three countries are contributing as well to a joint mission to design and manufacture the Small Multi-Mission Satellite (SMMS) which will function as an Earth observation and disaster monitoring platform.
Tarikhi never mentioned the Asia-Pacific Regional Space Agency Forum (APRSAF) which was established in 1993 under the oversight of what is now known as the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA).
This happened in response to the declaration adopted by the Asia-Pacific International Space Year Conference (APIC) in 1992. While one encounters a few Asian nations that belong to both APSCO and APRSAF simultaneously, there are distinctly political overtones to the split between APSCO and APRSAF. India, Japan and South Korea, for example, are members of APRSAF but not APSCO, while Iran belongs to APSCO, but not APRSAF. Regional space politics in Asia are complex indeed.
China's current involvement with Iran in space - jointly under the auspices of APSCO, AP-MCSTA and SMMS - have now been certified as entirely peaceful undertakings and valid scientific exchanges by the US government. This stems from a reasonable interpretation of a US decision made in June 2008 involving a prominent Chinese rocket and launch service company, China Great Wall
Industry Corp (CGWIC), which had been punished repeatedly by the US and most recently in June 2006 for its role in supplying Iran with certain missile components and related technical data. [2]
CGWIC was removed - or "de-listed" - in June 2008 from the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control's list of Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons pursuant to Executive Order 13382. This order relates to "Blocking Property of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferators and Their Supporters'' and it meant, that after a period of two years had elapsed, China's
highly visible dealings with Iran under the above-mentioned trio of regional Asian projects have been given a clean bill of health by the US.
But somehow, China is failing to make the world aware of this situation. And that could have grave consequences for Iran as many in Israel see the launch of Omid by Iran as now almost guaranteeing an Israeli attack on Iran.
Remember that Tarikhi's article appeared in Position magazine at almost the exact same time that this CGWIC de-listing happened in mid-2008, "[Omid's] launch is scheduled for mid-2008," wrote Tarikhi. "Omid will fly in near-polar orbit 650 kilometers above the Earth. It will pass over Iran six times every 24 hours. It will be the country's second satellite. The first was the Russian-made Sina-1, which was launched on 27 October 2005. At that time, Iran became the 43rd nation to own a satellite."
Here, Tarikhi's published launch date for the Omid satellite is noteworthy because, despite many recent assertions to the contrary, it confirms that Omid's actual launch date was months behind schedule.
This article stands out particularly in light of the reaction worldwide to Omid. Numerous governments seemed surprised by Omid's appearance, and strongly voiced their serious, grave and troubling concerns. The latest twist comes over the weekend from Dr Jeffrey Lewis and his team at www.armscontrolwonk.com. As they go about analyzing launch and payload data from Iran's Safir two-stage rocket, they are apparently encountering an Iranian launch vehicle far more sophisticated - and therefore far more troubling - than they had previously anticipated. Check it out.
"Like its 'civilian' nuclear efforts that remained undeclared for two decades, long-range ballistic missiles are likely being developed under cover of Iran's space program. Indeed, Tehran's
space work could lead to the development of an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) able to reach all of Europe and the United States with a WMD [weapon of mass destruction] payload," wrote Peter Brookes, a Washington DC-based Heritage Foundation senior fellow and a former US D deputy assistant secretary of defense, in a widely published column last week.
"Fact is, with this successful launch Tuesday, [President] Mahmud Ahmadinejad's Iran has moved one step closer to developing that ICBM capability. More launches are expected," Brookes added. "Another troubling sign is Iran launched its satellite ahead of schedule. Just last year, Tehran said it would send its first indigenously-produced satellite into space in mid-2009."
Again, Brookes is by no means alone as many observers in the West declared that Omid has appeared months ahead of schedule, apparently overlooking or disregarding entirely what Tarikhi had stated clearly to the contrary in mid-2008.
There is no question that late arrival or not, Omid's impact on Israel has been enormous.
"Iran has launched its first domestically made satellite into orbit; [this] missile carrying satellite can be used to carry nuclear warheads to Israel - and to Europe; the world has not found a way to stop or slow down Iran's nuclear weapons program; this means an Israeli attack on Iran is becoming more likely," wrote Ben Frankel on the day after Omid launched. "The countdown toward [an] Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities has begun." [3]
The US Department of State, mindful of Israel's finger on the trigger, immediately issued this following brief statement hours after the launch of Omid.
Iran's ongoing efforts to develop its missile delivery capabilities remain a matter of deep concern. Recently, Iran's development of a space launch vehicle (SLV) capable of putting a satellite into orbit establishes the technical basis from which Iran could develop long-range ballistic missile systems. Many of the technological building blocks involved in SLVs are the same as those required to develop long-range ballistic missiles.
Working with the United Nations, we have passed a number of UN Security Council Resolutions, including Resolution 1737, which require states to take the necessary measures to prevent the supply of, inter alia, specified equipment and technology that could contribute to Iran's development of nuclear weapons delivery systems. We will continue with our friends and allies in the region to address the threats posed by Iran, including those related to its missile and nuclear programs and its support of terrorism.
Only a few days later, as he addressed security conference attendees who had assembled in Munich, US Vice President Joe Biden softened the tone of the US message as he reached out to Iran.
"We will be willing to talk to Iran and to offer a very clear choice: continue down the current course and there will be continued pressure and isolation; abandon the illicit nuclear program and your support for terrorism and there will be meaningful incentives," he said.
In the meantime, what is China to do? China must realize that all the chips are down, and Iran's fate hangs in the balance. Of course, China has nothing to lose here. Doing nothing entails no real political risk.
Yes, the ball is entirely in Israel's court, and China's actions may not affect the outcome at all. That is the bottom line. And yet, timing is everything, and China should act in a responsible fashion now. China can play its APSCO card, and take a stand to possibly help avert widespread bloodshed, and a violent confrontation between Israel and Iran which could spin wildly out of control.
India is too engaged with Israel in space to speak out, while Japan is bottled up by North Korea's overall instability, and its increasingly hostile statements lately. China's prolonged silence after having recently signed timely cooperative agreements with Japan and South Korea to further regional cooperation in space, would be unfortunate.
In this instance, such silence will only breed further distrust and suspicion.
In the days to come, we only can only wait and see how China reacts to North Korea's next missile launch. Again, an important opportunity will present itself, and China will once again be obliged to stand up and speak out, hopefully. Of course, we can only hope.
Notes 1. For further details, click here.
2. See China taken off US missile hit list - again by Peter J Brown, Asia Times Online, December 12, 2008.
3. See Countdown toward Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities has begun February 3, 2009.
Peter J Brown is a satellite journalist from Maine USA.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

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• Iran: Satellite launch is 'source of pride' (cnn.com)
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Iran's new satellite challenges China

Image via Wikipedia

Asia Times Online

A provocative new satellite named Omid (Hope), which was launched by Iran last week, has certainly made its mark in space. For China, Omid represents an unusual opportunity, indeed a gift from Iran. The longstanding debate about China's role with Iran in space has suddenly changed.
Now China has a chance to step onto the world stage as the world evaluates what Iran is doing, and whether or not China is true to its word when it talks about its peaceful activities in space - which definitely involves its longstanding relationship with Iran.
Unfortunately, China often does a poor job of getting its message out, and Beijing is not getting the job done here either. In other
words, China can see the opportunity straight ahead, but for a variety of reasons, it risks dropping the ball altogether.
Before Omid, China's ongoing and often covert support of Iran's development of ballistic missile technology was always a hot topic whenever Iranian missile and space programs were on the table. Now, China's behind-the-scenes role has been almost forgotten entirely.
With its new satellite in orbit, the focus is both on the state of Iran's ballistic missile systems, and on how soon Israel will wipe out all of Iran's space facilities along with all of its nuclear facilities. By the way, this writer spotted Omid for the first time last Thursday, early in the evening, as it flew by low to the horizon well northwest of Maine.
Last time we checked, no mention whatsoever of it appears on the English-language section of the Iranian Space Agency (ISA) website, which, like the website maintained by the China National Space Administration, is of very limited value to the international community of space enthusiasts.
Iran is pursuing basic research in space technology via Omid. At least that is what Parviz Tarikhi, a senior ISA official who heads the Microwave Remote Sensing Department at the Mahdasht Satellite Receiving Station in Iran, wants the world to believe.
Tarikhi responded almost immediately via e-mail to several questions submitted to him by Asia Times Online. He is no doubt aware that his core response may not sit well with critics on the far right, particularly those who are now going to have to step back and at least acknowledge that Iran's space program is really no different than any other nation's.
The ISA has been involved in various peaceful United Nations-sponsored joint space activities for decades, and Iran is a participant in another forum, the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization (APSCO). China organized ASPCO in 2005, and it now includes Iran along with Bangladesh, Indonesia, Mongolia, Pakistan, Peru, Thailand and Turkey.
While there will be no attempt made here to somehow assert that China exerts any real influence over Iran's activities in space via APSCO, China stands to benefit enormously from anything that calls attention to, or otherwise underscores, China's efforts to foster the civilian and peaceful side of the global dual-use space technology agenda. As an established regional space forum in Asia, APSCO has served this purpose well.
Besides having much to say about APSCO, Tarikhi's broader track record to date cannot be dismissed or overlooked. He has contributed years of service to the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UN-COPUOS). Among other things, he co-chaired the Action Team of UNISPACE-III which has tried to develop a comprehensive worldwide environmental monitoring strategy. He and other ISA personnel have worked closely with senior officials from countries like Nigeria and Indonesia, something that US President Barack Obama might ponder.
In fact, as a senior member of the ISA team, Tarikhi's record embodies the ISA's commitment to developing assets in space both for peaceful purposes and for use as part of various multinational space projects. In an article published in "Position" magazine last June entitled, "Iran's Ambitions in Space" Tarikhi emphasized that "Iran has pursued a space program for many years. It first embraced the idea of using space and its technologies for peaceful purposes in 1958, when it joined 17 other countries to establish the UN ad hoc Committee for International Cooperation on Space (which later became UN-COPUOS)."
"However, it was the launch [by the US] of ERTS - which later became Landsat-1 - in 1972 that spurred real interest in remote sensing. Iran built a facility at Mahdasht, 65 kilometers west of Tehran, to obtain remote sensing imagery from the satellite," he wrote.
According to Tarikhi, satellite-based remote sensing is one of ISA's top priorities.
"Although the Mahdasht Receiving Station in northwest of Tehran was one of the first receiving stations around the world to receive [data and imagery] from Landsat, it failed to continue its activity properly and favorably due to the advent of the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1978," said Tarikhi.
"This raised the idea of having self-owned satellites to secure the needs of the country for remote sensing data in addition to other demands [including] communications and broadcasting, for instance." [1]
Omid is described by Tarikhi as an experimental satellite that is taking orbital measurements while opening the door to "more sophisticated systems carrying the remote sensing tools as well". There is a definite link between what the ISA is pursuing in space via Omid, and what APSCO sees as one of its top priorities.
"APSCO plans to develop remote sensing assets as one of its primary activities and programs. It would be beneficial for its members and would bring to them lots of economic and social benefits," said Tarikhi.
"APSCO could be a successful organization perhaps like the European Space Agency. The [growing interest in] space science and technologies in the Asia Pacific Region is considerable. There are big players like China, India, Japan and Australia in the space arena in the Asia-Pacific Region. South Korea, Thailand, Pakistan and Iran are advancing rapidly. If these enthusiastic nations can join forces, and pool their potential and their capabilities in this regard, they will save a lot of time and money while benefiting greatly from the collective synergy and outcome."
Far too often, discussions of military space applications and the phenomenon of space weaponization take on a life of their own, totally excluding the importance of scientific and basic research activities in space in the process.
"Space technology applications can be oriented for both civil and non-civil uses. It is up to us to make a selection, and either pave the way, or place limitations and obstacles for each of these uses and orientations," said Tarikhi. "It is more than wise to use such wonderful possibilities for the benefit of welfare and wellness of humanity - and for its sustainable development - at the national and global level."
"In the meantime, it should be noted that such achievements require a high degree of expertise, abilities and comprehensive knowledge about the subject," Tarikhi adds.
Highly specialized and talented human resources must emerge in each country, according to Tarikhi , who acknowledges that one cannot ignore the attitudes and visions of leaders in each nation who also influence and contribute to the pace, progress and developmental objectives of any nation's space program.
Iran's Omid project clearly supports the objectives of APSCO, and shares elements with another Chinese space initiative known as the Multilateral Cooperation on Space Technology Applications initiative in the Asia-Pacific region (AP-MCSTA). Iran has participated in this project along with China and Thailand, to name a few. These three countries are contributing as well to a joint mission to design and manufacture the Small Multi-Mission Satellite (SMMS) which will function as an Earth observation and disaster monitoring platform.
Tarikhi never mentioned the Asia-Pacific Regional Space Agency Forum (APRSAF) which was established in 1993 under the oversight of what is now known as the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA).
This happened in response to the declaration adopted by the Asia-Pacific International Space Year Conference (APIC) in 1992. While one encounters a few Asian nations that belong to both APSCO and APRSAF simultaneously, there are distinctly political overtones to the split between APSCO and APRSAF. India, Japan and South Korea, for example, are members of APRSAF but not APSCO, while Iran belongs to APSCO, but not APRSAF. Regional space politics in Asia are complex indeed.
China's current involvement with Iran in space - jointly under the auspices of APSCO, AP-MCSTA and SMMS - have now been certified as entirely peaceful undertakings and valid scientific exchanges by the US government. This stems from a reasonable interpretation of a US decision made in June 2008 involving a prominent Chinese rocket and launch service company, China Great Wall
Industry Corp (CGWIC), which had been punished repeatedly by the US and most recently in June 2006 for its role in supplying Iran with certain missile components and related technical data. [2]
CGWIC was removed - or "de-listed" - in June 2008 from the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control's list of Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons pursuant to Executive Order 13382. This order relates to "Blocking Property of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferators and Their Supporters'' and it meant, that after a period of two years had elapsed, China's
highly visible dealings with Iran under the above-mentioned trio of regional Asian projects have been given a clean bill of health by the US.
But somehow, China is failing to make the world aware of this situation. And that could have grave consequences for Iran as many in Israel see the launch of Omid by Iran as now almost guaranteeing an Israeli attack on Iran.
Remember that Tarikhi's article appeared in Position magazine at almost the exact same time that this CGWIC de-listing happened in mid-2008, "[Omid's] launch is scheduled for mid-2008," wrote Tarikhi. "Omid will fly in near-polar orbit 650 kilometers above the Earth. It will pass over Iran six times every 24 hours. It will be the country's second satellite. The first was the Russian-made Sina-1, which was launched on 27 October 2005. At that time, Iran became the 43rd nation to own a satellite."
Here, Tarikhi's published launch date for the Omid satellite is noteworthy because, despite many recent assertions to the contrary, it confirms that Omid's actual launch date was months behind schedule.
This article stands out particularly in light of the reaction worldwide to Omid. Numerous governments seemed surprised by Omid's appearance, and strongly voiced their serious, grave and troubling concerns. The latest twist comes over the weekend from Dr Jeffrey Lewis and his team at www.armscontrolwonk.com. As they go about analyzing launch and payload data from Iran's Safir two-stage rocket, they are apparently encountering an Iranian launch vehicle far more sophisticated - and therefore far more troubling - than they had previously anticipated. Check it out.
"Like its 'civilian' nuclear efforts that remained undeclared for two decades, long-range ballistic missiles are likely being developed under cover of Iran's space program. Indeed, Tehran's
space work could lead to the development of an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) able to reach all of Europe and the United States with a WMD [weapon of mass destruction] payload," wrote Peter Brookes, a Washington DC-based Heritage Foundation senior fellow and a former US D deputy assistant secretary of defense, in a widely published column last week.
"Fact is, with this successful launch Tuesday, [President] Mahmud Ahmadinejad's Iran has moved one step closer to developing that ICBM capability. More launches are expected," Brookes added. "Another troubling sign is Iran launched its satellite ahead of schedule. Just last year, Tehran said it would send its first indigenously-produced satellite into space in mid-2009."
Again, Brookes is by no means alone as many observers in the West declared that Omid has appeared months ahead of schedule, apparently overlooking or disregarding entirely what Tarikhi had stated clearly to the contrary in mid-2008.
There is no question that late arrival or not, Omid's impact on Israel has been enormous.
"Iran has launched its first domestically made satellite into orbit; [this] missile carrying satellite can be used to carry nuclear warheads to Israel - and to Europe; the world has not found a way to stop or slow down Iran's nuclear weapons program; this means an Israeli attack on Iran is becoming more likely," wrote Ben Frankel on the day after Omid launched. "The countdown toward [an] Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities has begun." [3]
The US Department of State, mindful of Israel's finger on the trigger, immediately issued this following brief statement hours after the launch of Omid.
Iran's ongoing efforts to develop its missile delivery capabilities remain a matter of deep concern. Recently, Iran's development of a space launch vehicle (SLV) capable of putting a satellite into orbit establishes the technical basis from which Iran could develop long-range ballistic missile systems. Many of the technological building blocks involved in SLVs are the same as those required to develop long-range ballistic missiles.
Working with the United Nations, we have passed a number of UN Security Council Resolutions, including Resolution 1737, which require states to take the necessary measures to prevent the supply of, inter alia, specified equipment and technology that could contribute to Iran's development of nuclear weapons delivery systems. We will continue with our friends and allies in the region to address the threats posed by Iran, including those related to its missile and nuclear programs and its support of terrorism.
Only a few days later, as he addressed security conference attendees who had assembled in Munich, US Vice President Joe Biden softened the tone of the US message as he reached out to Iran.
"We will be willing to talk to Iran and to offer a very clear choice: continue down the current course and there will be continued pressure and isolation; abandon the illicit nuclear program and your support for terrorism and there will be meaningful incentives," he said.
In the meantime, what is China to do? China must realize that all the chips are down, and Iran's fate hangs in the balance. Of course, China has nothing to lose here. Doing nothing entails no real political risk.
Yes, the ball is entirely in Israel's court, and China's actions may not affect the outcome at all. That is the bottom line. And yet, timing is everything, and China should act in a responsible fashion now. China can play its APSCO card, and take a stand to possibly help avert widespread bloodshed, and a violent confrontation between Israel and Iran which could spin wildly out of control.
India is too engaged with Israel in space to speak out, while Japan is bottled up by North Korea's overall instability, and its increasingly hostile statements lately. China's prolonged silence after having recently signed timely cooperative agreements with Japan and South Korea to further regional cooperation in space, would be unfortunate.
In this instance, such silence will only breed further distrust and suspicion.
In the days to come, we only can only wait and see how China reacts to North Korea's next missile launch. Again, an important opportunity will present itself, and China will once again be obliged to stand up and speak out, hopefully. Of course, we can only hope.
Notes 1. For further details, click here.
2. See China taken off US missile hit list - again by Peter J Brown, Asia Times Online, December 12, 2008.
3. See Countdown toward Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities has begun February 3, 2009.
Peter J Brown is a satellite journalist from Maine USA.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

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• Iran: Satellite launch is 'source of pride' (cnn.com)
• Iran launches first satellite (telegraph.co.uk)
• U.S. Envoy Predicts 'Direct Diplomacy' with Iran (usnews.com)

About that deflation risk

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com

There has been a distinct change in tone from the Obama team today, as they seem to have become suddenly aware that there's a real risk that the stimulus plan will either fail to pass, or be emasculated to the point that it doesn't come close to doing the job. Obama himself has warned of catastrophe if we fail to act, and -- finally!- denounced the tax-cut philosophy. Meanwhile, Larry Summers has finally made the point I've been pushing for a while -- that we're at major risk of falling into a deflationary trap.
[..]But deflation is a huge risk -- and getting out of a deflationary trap is very, very hard.
We truly are flirting with disaster.

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About that deflation risk

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com

There has been a distinct change in tone from the Obama team today, as they seem to have become suddenly aware that there's a real risk that the stimulus plan will either fail to pass, or be emasculated to the point that it doesn't come close to doing the job. Obama himself has warned of catastrophe if we fail to act, and -- finally!- denounced the tax-cut philosophy. Meanwhile, Larry Summers has finally made the point I've been pushing for a while -- that we're at major risk of falling into a deflationary trap.
[..]But deflation is a huge risk -- and getting out of a deflationary trap is very, very hard.
We truly are flirting with disaster.

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• Obama Pleads on Stimulus: Ailing Economy Faces 'Catastrophe' (abcnews.go.com)

Moscow, Tehran force the US's hand

Image by Army.mil via Flickr

Asia Times Online

It may seem there could be nothing in common between the blowing up of a bridge in the Khyber, the usage of an air base nestling in the foothills of the Pamirs and the launch of a 60-pound (37.2 kilogram) satellite into the night sky that will circle the Earth 14 times a day.
But band them together and they trigger the political and diplomatic equivalent of what is known in the game of chess as zwischenzug, which means an intermediate move that improves a player's position.
Persians, who invented chess, would have mastery over zwischenzug.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hassan Qashqavi said in Tehran on Wednesday, "Iran has no plans to stop its nuclear activity. At its forthcoming meeting, the 'Iran Six' should draw up a logical approach and accept the fact that Iran is a nuclear state."
The Taliban don't play chess
It is unlikely the Taliban factored Iran's imminent zwischenzug when they blew up the 30-meter iron bridge in the Khyber Pass 24 kilometers west of Peshawar in northwest Pakistan on Monday, which halted the supplies for North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) troops in Afghanistan. But the disruption of traffic once again exposed the vulnerability of the main NATO supply route and focused attention on Tehran.
This is forcing NATO into a major policy shift. NATO's top military commander in Afghanistan, General John Craddock, admitted that the alliance would not oppose individual member nations making deals with Iran to supply their forces in Afghanistan. To quote Craddock, a four-star American general who is also NATO's supreme allied commander, "Those would be national decisions. Nations should act in a manner that is consistent with their national interest and with their ability to resupply their forces. I think it is purely up to them."
Craddock was transferring rapidly to the operational plane what the alliance's secretary general Jaap de Hoop Scheffer had said only a week ago that NATO member countries, including the United States, should engage Iran to combat the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Scheffer wouldn't have spoken without Washington's nod. Craddock underscored it. NATO is keen to use the new highway built by the Indian government from central Afghanistan to the Iranian border at Zaranj, which would allow access to Iran's deep-sea Persian Gulf port at Chabahar. The road is largely unused. The Indians completed work on the highway hardly a fortnight ago.
NATO is scrambling. It must somehow reduce dependence on Pakistani supply routes, which are currently used for ferrying about 80% of supplies. The irony cannot be lost on onlookers. NATO seeks an Iranian route when Tehran is demanding a US troop pullout from Afghanistan.
Last Thursday, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki remarked that Iran had paid attention to the plans of US President Barack Obama's administration to withdraw US troops from Iraq and "we believe this should be extended to Afghanistan as well".
The irony deepens insofar as a fortnight ago US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates in his first congressional testimony in the new administration leveled allegations about increased Iranian "interference" and doublespeak in Afghanistan, and implied that Tehran was fueling the insurgency.
Russia's zwischenzug
The heart of the matter is that the US's efforts to open supply routes from the north across the Amu Darya have got caught up in the great game in Central Asia. American spokesmen blithely claimed Russia and the Central Asian states were providing supply routes. But the geopolitics do not bear that out.
Kyrgyzstan President Kurmanbek Bakiyev dropped a bombshell on Tuesday by demanding the closure of the US military base in Manas, which is used for ferrying supplies for Afghanistan. He said this after talks with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, during which Moscow pledged to Bishkek that it was writing off $180 million debt and would also provide Kyrgyzstan with a $2 billion soft loan and an outright grant of $150 million.
NATO's envoy to Central Asia, Robert Simmons, rushed to Bishkek in a last-ditch attempt to stall the Kyrgyz move, but only to regret the development and admit that NATO's Afghan operations would be adversely affected. Washington still hopes to salvage the situation, but that involves taking Moscow's help.
Moscow is willing, as always - provided the US is prepared to shelve its untimely geopolitical agenda to broaden and deepen its (and NATO's) strategic presence in Central Asia on the pretext of developing new supply routes for Afghanistan. Plainly put, Moscow feels irritated about Washington's abrasive diplomacy in Central Asia in recent weeks.
The US signed an agreement with Kazakhstan, Russia's key ally, offering to procure "a significant part" of its supplies for Afghanistan from that country. and in turn is pressuring it to make troop deployments in Afghanistan. Conceivably, Moscow (and Beijing) view with disquiet the US move to court their key Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) ally into the Western strategic orbit. Conceivably, Moscow's zwischenzug to evict the US military from Kyrgyzstan would enjoy tacit Chinese encouragement as well.
Nyet to selective engagement
Washington prefers "selective engagement" without addressing the underlying factors that caused the chill in relations. The Kremlin remains cautiously optimistic that Obama may address relations from a fresh perspective. The mood is reflected in a pithy comment by former Russian president Mikhail Gorbachev that "there are grounds for optimism, so far".
But an underlying sense of exasperation is visible. As a Moscow commentator put it, the George W Bush era may be over, but the "consequences are still there"; Obama might have new ideas, but the "old wire-pullers" are still there in the establishment in key positions; and, therefore, Obama might need "years rather than months to shape a new foreign policy".
So, Moscow resorted to zwischenzug. Last Saturday, the influential Moscow paper Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported that Russia proposed to reopen the key Soviet air base of Bombora on the Black Sea coast in Abkhazia. On Tuesday, Russia signed an agreement with Belarus setting up an integrated air defense system. On Wednesday, Medvedev used the CSTO forum to reiterate he was open to cooperation with the US in the fight against terrorism in Afghanistan.
Again, in related comments on Wednesday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin said, "We hope that we and the United States will hold special and professional talks on this issue [of transit routes to Afghanistan] in the near future. We will see how effectively we can cooperate ... The US, Central Asia, China - we are all interested in a successful anti-terrorism operation in Afghanistan."
Karasin assured that the US's eviction from Manas "would not prove an obstruction". He said, "We [Russia] hope that we and the United States will hold special and professional talks on the issue in the near future. We will see how effectively we can cooperate."
In sum, the ball is in Obama's court. The big question is whether he can bulldoze the hardliners and jettison the heavy baggage of geopolitics that his faltering Afghan war is needlessly carrying.
Meanwhile, the shadow of US-Russian relations falls on the Hindu Kush. The Russian media reported that a high-level Afghan military delegation is expected in Moscow in the "near future". With a growing possibility that Obama may withdraw support for Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Moscow will be weighing its options.
The US is perched on a slippery slope in Afghanistan. The Taliban resurgence continues and the security situation is deteriorating, but NATO is unable to increase its force level or evolve an effective strategy. NATO supply lines have come under threat, but alternate routes are yet to be negotiated. The US's rift with the Karzai regime is widening, but a replacement is never easy to be catapulted into power in Kabul. Again, Washington should pressure Islamabad, but the situation in Pakistan is far too fragile to take any greater pressure.
It is against this complex backdrop that Iran's satellite took off into the star-studded night sky on Monday. Named Hope, its launch has a multiplier effect on geopolitics. Warning bells are ringing in Western capitals that any expectation of Tehran lowering its guard is misplaced. The launch can be seen as a technological feat, which it indeed is, but Hope also gives a hard message about Iran's military capability.
Experts estimate that the two-stage rocket used for its launch could easily carry a small warhead to a target 2,500 kilometers away. It may not be an inter-continental ballistic missile, but southern Europe comes within its range, as indeed the whole of Israel. Simply put, Iran has in hand a credible deterrent against a US-Israeli military attack.
White House press secretary Robert Gibbs described the launch as of "acute concern to this administration". German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeir said after his first meeting with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, "We want to be helpful in making sure that the outstretched hand of President Obama is a strong hand." No doubt, these are strong words.
But an unmatchable German word is more to the point - zugzwang. It literally means "compelled to move". That is, a situation develops on the chessboard when any move a player makes can only weaken his position, but he is nonetheless compelled to make his move.
It may be far-fetched to say that Moscow and Tehran coordinated their respective zwischenzug, but certainly both keenly await Washington's zugzwang .
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

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