Fortunately, not all Republicans think this way. So what are reasonable Republicans saying about the stand off with Iran? Gregory Djerejian has a soundly thought out opinion expressed with unusually sharp language about the current Administration. It seems that not all Republicans believe the propaganda about Al Qaeda and Iran coming from the White House.
The Belgravia Dispatch
And then, there's the reality that, even if we hit the jackpot, and decimate every last nuclear installation in Iran (highly unlikely) you can bet your bottom dollar the vast majority of the Iranian public will be united in demanding their government (whether a Khatami or Ahmadi-Nejad type) do its damn utmost to reconstitute the program--full speed ahead, and damn the torpedoes (or Tomahawks)! It will become the issue determining Iranian pride and national dignity in the post-bombing era. Are we going to bomb perennially, every two years or so, for decades?
There are also the possible Iranian responses. Anthony Cordesman spelled a few of them out recently, and they include (his language, with slight B.D tweaks): 1) Iranian retaliation against US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan using Shahab-3 missiles armed with CBR warheads; 2) using proxy groups including al-Zarqawi and Sadr in Iraq to intensify the insurgency and escalate the attacks against US forces and Iraqi Security Forces; 3) turning the Shi’ite majority in Iraq against the US presence and demand US forces to leave; 4) attacking the US homeland with suicide bombs by proxy groups or deliver CBR weapons to al-Qa’ida to use against the US; 5) using its asymmetric capabilities to attacks US interests in the region including soft targets: e.g. embassies, commercial centers, and American citizens; 6) attacking US naval forces stationed in the Gulf with anti-ship missiles, asymmetric warfare, and mines; 7) attacking Israel with missile attacks possibly with CBR warheads; 8) retaliating against energy targets in the Gulf and temporarily shut off the flow of oil from the Strait of Hormuz; and 9) stopping all of its oil and gas shipments to increase the price of oil, inflict damage on the global and US economies.
Yes, we can game plan for some of these contingencies and take preventative action. But, lest we forget, we have a gross incompetent at the helm of the Defense Department, so chances are he'll make a mockery of a good deal of the war-planning.I don't say that cheaply for kicks. I say it because, you know, it's pretty much true. Frankly, as Tom Friedman recently queried, what's worse? An Iran with nukes, or Inglorious Ruin Rummy's Great Persian Campaign? A close call, eh? Smart money is with the latter, I'd think, given the colossal blunders Rummy has presided over in Mesopotamia, plain to all observers save, oh I don't know, Larry di Rita, Hindrocket, Charles 'Pali Towelheads Smell But Are Fed Well' Johnson and, lest we forget, The Decider himself (even Fred Barnes has gotten on the clue train, at this stage).
So, what to do, you ask? Before we turn to going-forward prescriptions, we should also dispense with the Michael Ledeen school that believes revolution is nigh in the streets of Iran. To quote from an excellent (and still relevant) 2004 CFR Report:Despite...widespread alienation from the prevailing political order, Iran does not appear to be in a prerevolutionary situation. Iranians are protesting the political system by withholding their participation from any form of organized politics, including involvement with the opposition. People are frustrated with the Islamic Republic, but they have also demonstrated that they are not prepared to take that frustration to the streets. This disengagement from politics is a direct product of Iran's recent history. Having endured the disappointment of their last democratic experiment gone awry, Iranians are weary of political turmoil and skeptical that they can positively change their political circumstances through mass mobilization.
And, unfortunately, the same report goes on to report: "no organization or potential leader has emerged with the apparent discipline or stamina to sustain a major confrontation with the government's conservative forces." Yes, yes, I know. If we can only let Elizabeth Cheney turn on the $$ taps (with the predictable gang in DC doubtless getting palsy-walsy with the next Persian Ahmad!), pump USD 70MM in the polity, we might even drop a cutesy Los Angeleno into the Azeri parts of the country and establish a safe-haven or something. But you know what? I saw that movie, it played next door in fact, and I'm not gonna watch it again. Repeat after me: no effing way! No sale you discredited dreamers, out ready so soon for another delusional jolly. Basta!
Look, the AEI gaggles think this is Warsaw, 1980, Solidarity all over again. It ain't. As the above quoted report points out:Flawed assumptions about Iran's murky internal situation have weakened the effectiveness of U.S. policy toward the country in recent years. Persuaded that revolutionary change was imminent in Iran, the administration sought to influence Iran's internal order, relying on the model of the East European transition from communism. However, the neat totalitarian dichotomy between the regime and the people does not exist in the Islamic Republic, and, as a result, frequent, vocal appeals to the "Iranian people" only strengthened the cause of clerical reactionaries and left regime opponents vulnerable to charges of being Washington's "fifth column".
[...]There is a need to start talking, but within the framework of the ongoing multilateral process (on the nuclear issue), and a new bilateral channel (on Iraq, Afghanistan, Hezbollah, the Middle East Peace Process, al-Qaeda). Aside from the stick of real sanctions that the Euros will have signed onto in return for us opening up a bilateral channel, we should proffer commercial carrots such as permitting discussions re: executory contracts that would allow U.S. businesses to negotiate with Iranian counterparts--but importantly with a delay in the actual execution of the contracts if overall bilateral and multilateral talks didn't progress far enough. As the CFR report states: "...the return of U.S. businesses to Tehran could help undermine the clerics' monopoly on power by strengthening the non-state sector, improving the plight of Iran's beleaguered middle class, and offering new opportunities to transmit American values."
So what is the solution? Talk, that's right. Can you believe it? There are Republicans who don't reach for a gun whenever there is a disagreement! Can you believe Kissinger is among them?
WaPo
If America is prepared to negotiate with North Korea over proliferation in the six-party forum, and with Iran in Baghdad over Iraqi security, it must be possible to devise a multilateral venue for nuclear talks with Tehran that would permit the United States to participate -- especially in light of what is at stake.
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