Oil Blackmail Around the Corner?

Here is a scenario that I don't think too many people are thinking about. The tide of dissent within Arab countries will make it impossible for them to ignore Lebanon. Another oil embargo, orchestrated by Russia and Iran, even without Arab participation, would kick off a world wide recession.
PINR

As the war between Israel and Lebanon escalates, growing regional and world outrage may increasingly be channeled toward the United States -- the only country that has influence over Tel Aviv. This may encourage the world's three largest oil producers, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iran, to significantly reduce oil exports in order to increase pressure on Washington to rein in Israel's military actions. An oil export embargo undertaken by just Russia and Iran, which together account for 20 percent of the world's oil exports, would be much more effective at extracting a major policy change from the Bush administration than Syrian and Iranian missile strikes against Israel.


Economic data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 28 showed that economic growth in the United States is weakening. Because excess oil production capacity does not exist anywhere in the world, a coordinated reduction of oil exports between any or all of the world's largest oil exporters of just five percent would quickly send international oil prices toward $125 per barrel. An increase in oil prices of this magnitude could be expected to push the United States economy into recession. With the November mid-term Congressional elections in the United States approaching rapidly, those countries opposing Israel's military actions may soon act to cut oil exports and effect political change in the United States, touching off a global recession in 2007.