Citizen G'kar: Musings on Earth

August 19, 2008

In Georgia, Russia sends clear message US, Israeli influence will not be tolerated

Route of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline

Image via Wikipedia


With Russia continuing to claim it's withdrawing from Georgia, there is little evidence on the ground, Georgia claims Russian troops continue military operations. Speculation continues about what is Putin's intent by dragging it's feet. Certainly, it continues to damage it's reputation in the West. The Daily Star out of Lebanon has an interesting theory.
South Ossetian separatists, supported by Moscow, escalated their machine-gun and mortar-fire attacks against neighboring Georgian villages last week. In response, Georgia attacked the separatist capital South Ossetian Tskhinvali with artillery to suppress fire. Tskhinvali suffered severe damage, thus providing the pretext for Moscow's invasion of Georgia. Russians in Abkhazia are also fighting the Georgians.
As Russia responded with overwhelming force, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin flew from the Beijing Olympics to Vladikavkaz, taking control of the military operations. Putin sidelined his successor, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, thereby leaving no doubt as to who is in charge. Medvedev's role is to handle the international diplomatic front which seems to be not on the table. Under Putin's orders, the 58th Russian Army of the North Caucasus Military District rolled into South Ossetia, reinforced by the 76th Airborne "Pskov" Division. Cossacks from the neighboring Russian territories moved in to combat the Georgians as well.
The Black Sea Fleet is blockading Georgia from the sea, while Russian ballistic missiles and its air force are attacking Georgian military bases and cities including Tbilisi. What Russia is trying to do - and looking like she may succeed - is to establish a pro-Russian regime in Georgia that will also bring the strategic Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Baku-Erzurum (Turkey) gas pipeline under Moscow's control.
More importantly and with immense strategic implications, Russia is also trying to send Israel a clear message that Tel Aviv's military support for Tbilisi in organizing, training and equipping Georgia's army will no longer be tolerated. Private Israeli security firms and retired military officials are actively involved in Georgian security. Further, Israel's interest in Caspian oil and gas pipelines is growing and Russia seeks to stop this activity at this time. Intense negotiations about current and future pipelines between Israel, Turkey, Georgia, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan are tied to receiving oil at the terminal at Ashkelon and on to the Red Sea port of Eilat. Finally, Russia is sending a clear message that it will not tolerate US influence in Georgia nor Tbilisi's interests - supported by the pro-US Georgian President Mikhal Saakashvili - in joining NATO. Overall, the military crisis will push Moscow to punish Israel for its assistance to Georgia, and challenge the US to do more than voice rhetoric.

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