Bush warns Iran on nuclear plans

BBC NEWS

US President George W Bush says he still has not ruled out the option of using force against Iran, after it resumed work on its nuclear programme. He said he was working on a diplomatic solution, but was sceptical that one could be found.


The UN's atomic watchdog has called on Iran to halt nuclear fuel development. Iran, which denies it is secretly trying to develop nuclear arms, restarted work at its uranium conversion plant at Isfahan on Monday.


"All options are on the table," said Mr Bush, when asked about the possible use of force during an interview for Israeli TV. The use of force is the last option for any president. You know we have used force in the recent past to secure our country," he said.

There goes Bush being bellicose and belligerant again. What could he possibly thinking when Iraq has become a quagmire. Bush has given the German Chancellor a campaign slogan.
BBC NEWS

German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has warned the US to back away from the possibility of military action against Iran over its nuclear programme. His comments come a day after President Bush reiterated that force remained an option but only as a last resort. Iran has resumed what it says is a civilian nuclear research programme but which the West fears could be used to develop nuclear arms. Mr Schroeder's rejection of force came at the official launch of his party's election campaign.

Certainly no one believes the US is preparing an invasion. But there has been much talk about the Israeli intentions for Iran. In fact, Bush has already invited the Israelis to attack Iran militarily.
Irish Independent

Israel, they argue, should do the same again [as they did in Iraq in 1981 - Dave] and launch pre-emptive military attacks on Iran's growing nuclear infrastructure. But Iran has developed its nuclear programme with such a scenario in mind.


It has deliberately spread its facilities far and wide, using nine locations, according to one intelligence source. Each facility is buried under tons of reinforced concrete, making it more difficult to destroy, even with the help of the BLU-109 "bunker-buster" bombs the US is selling its closest Middle Eastern ally.


Iran, moreover, is further away from Israel than Iraq, raising even greater doubts about the ability of the F15 and F16 planes Israel would use in any air raids to reach their target and then make it home without being refuelled.


There is also the question of how the aircraft would get close enough to hit their targets. The US controls Iraqi airspace but it seems inconceivable that Washington would open it up to Israeli combat jets and tankers. [Certainly the Iraqi government wouldn't allow it. - Dave] While the problems facing air strikes are significant, Israel's military nevertheless believes it has the means to cause serious damage to the Iranian nuclear capability.


Israel's cruise missiles, launched from planes or submarines, give the country a capability that it did not possess in 1981 when it launched its unilateral attack on the Iraqi reactor with a conventional bombing sortie.


"It's a bit more challenging in Iran but the military option remains a real one," said David Ivri, a retired Israeli air force officer who commanded Operation Opera, the attack on Iraq's reactor.

One would have to wonder just how effective a bombing attack on Iran would be given the conditions on the ground.
The Union of Concerned Scientists

According to several recent scientific studies, Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator (RNEP) would not be effective at destroying many underground targets, and its use could result in the death of millions of people.


RNEP would produce tremendous radioactive fallout: A nuclear earth penetrator cannot penetrate deep enough to contain the nuclear fallout. Even the strongest casing will crush itself by the time it penetrates 10-30 feet into rock or concrete.

[...]
RNEP could kill millions of people: A simulation of RNEP used against the Esfahan nuclear facility in Iran, using the software developed for the Pentagon, showed that 3 million people would be killed by radiation within 2 weeks of the explosion, and 35 million people in Afghanistan, Pakistan and India would be exposed to increased levels of cancer-causing radiation.

Figure 1: Fallout from the use of RNEP against the Esfahan nuclear facility in Iran would spread for thousands of miles across Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. It would kill 3 million people within 2 weeks of the explosion and expose 35 million to cancer causing radiation.

[...]
RNEP would not be effective at destroying the deepest or widely separated bunkers. The seismic shock produced by the RNEP would only be able to destroy bunkers to a depth of about a thousand feet. Modern bunkers can be deeper than that, with a widely separated complex of connected rooms and tunnels.


There are more effective conventional alternatives to RNEP: Current precision-guided conventional weapons can be used to cut off a bunker's communications, power, and air, effectively keeping the enemy weapons underground and unusable until U.S. forces secure them.

The experts say even a nuclear bunker buster wouldn't be effective against the Iranian nuclear installation. However, they do point to the real military option the US has.
By now, the US has considerable on the ground intelligence about Iran's nuclear capability. They have Special Forces in place prepared to support air strikes to isolate the facilities, neutralise air defenses, land a sufficient force of paratroopers, seals and special forces at all the locations simultaneous in Iran and take them by ground forces. While this would not be an easy operation because Iranian air defenses are formidable. But there are plenty of operational strength in the area to accomplish the purpose.
The only complication is the countries who might be used as bases. Iraq, and Uzbekistan are not likely to be supportive. On the other hand, since the US is moving out of Uzbekistan, they could time the move operationally for a move against Iran. I'm sure there'd be no apologies. Afghanistan and Pakistan would have little recourse that to protest after the fact, and quietly support the move. Much of the Middle East would do much the same. The Sunnis have no desire to see Shiites with the bomb.
The US has been planning this for a long time. It's likely that it was part of the contingencies after the US secured Iraq, a task Rummie thought would be easy. US Special Forces have been in Iran since probably late 2004. US aircraft have been playing cat and mouse with Iranian air defense since about that time. Richard Perle, a neo-con darling, floated a trial balloon in late January 2004. The CIA started complaining around the beginning of February that military intelligence has been stomping on their turf in Iran while the Senate Foreign Relations Committee launched a "pre-emptive" examination of intelligence on Iran to "avoid the problems that occured with Iraq".
The US has developed, with the support of Congress, a ready source of Iranian volunteers to help with the effort from the Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization (MEK). It's indeed possible, MEK at the bidding of Washington, has sent operatives into Iran to help in the effort. MEK most likely in coordination with US Special Forces may be encouraging acts of sabatoge against the Iranian government, even those that are killing Iranian civilians.
US think tanks friendly with the Administration have been publically advocating regime change in Iran since May, 2004.
Events of the recent past may have helped swing the last Iranian election to the right. The new President of Iran has appealed to the nationalistic sentiments to this proud people. With the new Iraqi government effectively an new ally for Iran and Iran building new ties to China and India, its position in the world promises only to improve. The Bush Admininistration is eagerly attempting to damage the reputation of Iran.
All of this follows the pattern of build up towards the invasion of Iraq. While this time the operation will have to have limited goals, specifically destroying the Iranian nuclear facilities, you can be sure they will step up Special Forces operations promoting regime change.
The problem is that these actions will simply convince the rest of the world that the only way to prevent a US invasion in their country is to quickly and quietly go nuclear. The US has no credibility on that topic, even from its supposed allies.


Bush | Schroeder
BBC NEWS
Bush warns Iran on nuclear plans
US President George W Bush says he still has not ruled out the option of using force against Iran, after it resumed work on its nuclear programme.
He said he was working on a diplomatic solution, but was sceptical that one could be found.
The UN's atomic watchdog has called on Iran to halt nuclear fuel development.
Iran, which denies it is secretly trying to develop nuclear arms, restarted work at its uranium conversion plant at Isfahan on Monday.
"All options are on the table," said Mr Bush, when asked about the possible use of force during an interview for Israeli TV.
"The use of force is the last option for any president. You know we have used force in the recent past to secure our country," he said.
NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE
Mined uranium ore is purified and reconstituted into solid form known as yellowcake
Yellowcake is converted into a gas by heating it to about 64C (147F)
Gas is fed through centrifuges, where its isotopes separate and process is repeated until uranium is enriched
Low-level enriched uranium is used for nuclear fuel
Highly enriched uranium can be used in nuclear weapons
The BBC's Jonathan Beale in Washington says the president wants to send a clear warning to Tehran, although in reality the US already has its hands full in neighbouring Iraq.
'Cost them dearly'
The former Iranian President, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, has expressed surprise at Thursday's call by the UN nuclear agency, the IAEA, for Iran to suspend its nuclear activities.
The IAEA asked its chief, Mohamed ElBaradei, to report on Iran's compliance by 3 September.
Speaking at Friday prayers in Tehran, Mr Rafsanjani said western opposition to Iran's decision to resume its nuclear programme would, as he put it, cost them dearly.
"Our people are not going to allow their nuclear rights to be seized," Mr Rafsanjani said. He said he was astonished that no country opposed the European Union-sponsored resolution, adopted by the IAEA, that urged Iran to stop any work on processing uranium for enrichment.
He emphasised that Iran's decision to resume its nuclear programme was irreversible, and said his country could not be treated like Iraq or Libya. The IAEA's 35-member governing body met in emergency session this week after Iran ended a nine-month suspension of work at Isfahan.
Iran insists it needs nuclear power as an alternative energy source, but Western nations fear it has plans to produce nuclear weapons.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/middle_east/4147892.stm
Published: 2005/08/13 04:37:54 GMT
© BBC MMV
BBC NEWS
Germany attacks US on Iran threat
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has warned the US to back away from the possibility of military action against Iran over its nuclear programme.
His comments come a day after President Bush reiterated that force remained an option but only as a last resort.
Iran has resumed what it says is a civilian nuclear research programme but which the West fears could be used to develop nuclear arms.
Germany, France and the UK have led efforts to end the crisis peacefully.
Let's take the military option off the table. We have seen it doesn't work
Gerhard Schroeder
Mr Schroeder's rejection of force came at the official launch of his party's election campaign.
The BBC's Ray Furlong - reporting from Hanover - says there was an echo of his last election campaign three years ago, when his steadfast opposition to the use of force against Iraq helped get him re-elected.
Applause
Mr Schroeder directly challenged Mr Bush's comment that "all options are on the table" over the Iran crisis.
"Let's take the military option off the table. We have seen it doesn't work," Mr Schroeder told Social Democrats at the rally in Hanover, to rapturous applause from the crowd.
Mr Schroeder said it remained important that Iran did not gain atomic weapons, and a strong negotiating position was important.
"The Europeans and the Americans are united in this goal," he said. "Up to now we were also united in the way to pursue this."
Mr Schroeder reiterates his views in an interview to be published Sunday in the German weekly Bild am Sonntag, labelling military action "extremely dangerous".
"This is why I can with certainty exclude any participation by the German government under my direction," Mr Schroeder tells the paper.
Mr Schroeder was among Europe's sternest critics of the Iraq war, causing a bitter rift with the US which poisoned relations between the two countries.
His opposition, in tandem with that President Jacques Chirac's France, led to US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld's stinging attack on "old Europe".
NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE
Mined uranium ore is purified and reconstituted into solid form known as yellowcake
Yellowcake is converted into a gas by heating it to about 64C (147F)
Gas is fed through centrifuges, where its isotopes separate and process is repeated until uranium is enriched
Low-level enriched uranium is used for nuclear fuel
Highly enriched uranium can be used in nuclear weapons
The UN's atomic watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, backed a resolution this week expressing "serious concern" at the resumption of the nuclear programme, and demanding it be halted again at once.
Mr Bush's comments about the military option came in an interview on Israeli TV.
The BBC's Jonathan Beale in Washington says the president wants to send a clear warning to Tehran, although in reality the US already has its hands full in neighbouring Iraq.
Mr Schroeder is lagging well behind his conservative rivals in the German election campaign, but has been narrowing the gap in recent days.
In the 2002 poll, he came from behind to snatch victory after anti-Iraq war feeling - and an outbreak of serious flooding in Germany - helped him attract last-minute support.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/world/middle_east/4149090.stm
Published: 2005/08/13 16:19:43 GMT
© BBC MMV