Seems a Bit Early for 2008, But....

Contrary to some speculation, I think it's highly unlikely Gore will run for President in 2008. He's on a crusade alright, but as a media mogul using the internet to stimulate a new marketplace of ideas. Hillary Clinton and John Edwards have been rubbing shoulders with world leaders as if they are running. And I've been getting emails every week from John Kerry. He's traveling, speaking and making appearances in support of Democratic candidates as if he's running.
Now we have a possible contender on the Republican side. Newt Gingrich has all but declared his candidacy for President in 2008. But he may have ulterior motives for announcing so soon.
The Next Hurrah

In the absence of a leader who, by threatening to deprive people of future clout, can discipline Republicans, such exposure risks having Republicans abandon the Neocon project entirely. Without someone who can exact revenge on politicians for falling out of line (even during a future Administration), disciplinary commitment to the Neocon project will be lost.


So Newt, a reasonably credible candidate, stepped up and promised there would be hell to pay if people bailed on the Neocons wholesale. Either I--or some other Neocon--will be running in the 2008 election, he promised. In either case, someone will be promoting "his ideas." So politicians better not question the fundamental assumptions of Neocon power unless they're prepared to defend themselves, against a pretty good debater no less.


It's telling, though, that Newt is the one taking this position. Cheney had intimated he might run at different times in the past; he's not an option any more. But I suspect that Newt may over-estimate his insulation from the Plame Affair. Newt was there with Dick Cheney and Scooter Libby when they were harrassing CIA analysts to fix the intelligence. And he was allegedly at some of the get-Wilson meetings. If this turns into a full-blown conspiracy case, Newt may be one of those indicted, or at the very least, named as un-indicted co-conspirator.


Newt's announcement today, I suspect, was an attempt to ensure the Neocons retained a strong leader and disciplinarian with probable future access to power. What does it say then, that he may be implicated as well?