PINR: With US Bogged Down In Iraq, North Korea Was Free To Act

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an independent organization produces conflict analysis from open source intelligence of international relations. "PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader."
It's been my suspicion for a long time that North Korea, Iran, China, and Russia have been particularly bellicose since the US bogged down in Iraq. Potential power is much more persuasive than power unleashed. When let loose, powers limitations become open knowledge. The US looks more and more every day as a paper tiger. Even our allies know they can't count on us.
PINR

North Korea's decision on Wednesday morning to test six to ten missiles demonstrates Pyongyang's assessment that the United States will not react decisively to its new show of force. Instead, Pyongyang sees these latest missile tests as an opportunity to demonstrate its perceived threat potential, which it presumes can be used at a later date to extract concessions from the United States and its allies. Indeed, the timing of the tests was meant to coincide with the Independence Day holiday in the United States, and also possibly with the Discovery space shuttle launch in Florida. The last time North Korea tested a ballistic missile was in 1998, which rocketed over Japan and landed in the Pacific Ocean. This time it fired a series of short- and medium-range missiles and also apparently tested its new Taepodong-2 multi-stage missile with a range of 3,500-4,300 kilometers (2,190-2,690 miles), enough to hit Alaska -- that rocket, however, failed shortly after launch.


The July 5 missile tests may have also been partly a response to the recently augmented military relationship between the United States and Japan; on June 26, Tokyo and Washington agreed for the first time to deploy Patriot interceptor missiles on U.S. military bases in Japan. The joint U.S.-Japan decision was in response to what was then North Korea's potential ballistic missile test, and the move elicited a negative reaction from North Korea and China; Beijing sees the joint U.S.-Japan move as partially aimed at containing China's military growth.


Since the end of 2002, Pyongyang has executed sporadic acts of aggression, such as admitting to a secret nuclear weapons program in 2002, withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2003, declaring the possession of nuclear weapons in 2005, and resuming missile tests in 2006. These acts have been aggressive, yet cautious, with Pyongyang aiming to increase its threat potential without forcing the hand of the United States and its allies; its actions have been threatening, yet not so much as to demand an overwhelming response. Furthermore, while many of these aggressive actions may have been too risky if executed before the U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, Pyongyang has accurately assessed that Washington's current interventions have made it less likely to intervene in new conflicts. MORE