I've written extensively in the past about the outbreak in Jihadi violence in Europe post 9-11, about France, and Britain. While we may have been winning the battles in turns of casualties, effective weapons, and initiative, Iraq represents the failure of the US foreign policy under Bush. Without a redoubling of efforts in Afghanistan, it seems likely to fall apart as well. Al Qaeda has been winning the war. Each of the problems address below represents a kind of asymmetrical conflict, a long-term intergenerational socio-political kind of warfare. This kind of tactic spreads across generations, with it's primary target being the hearts and minds of a community. This view of conflict can span a period of decades, even centuries. This historical perspective of conflict is required to see the intent of our enemies and in fact defeat them. The rules of warfare have changed and we are losing.
WaPo today has a great article that addresses many of the root causes behind the outbreak of Jihadi terror plots in Britain. I will use the article to illustrate the key issues we face in winning the hearts and minds of Muslim youth world wide.
1. Revenge across generations.
Asghar Bukhari of the Muslim Public Affairs Committee, which advocates Muslim involvement in the democratic process and opposes violence, said, "It's not hard to comprehend the mind of a Muslim." He said young British Muslims look around the world and "everywhere they are getting bombed," so they increasingly respond by saying, "Don't just sit down and take it -- let's fight them."
Harming the United States clearly remains a top priority of al-Qaeda and other radical groups, and the plot uncovered this week allegedly involved planes heading to major U.S. cities. But officials said Britain is an increasingly enticing target for extremists eager to strike back at the West, particularly Bush and Blair.
Blood begets more blood. All long term conflicts carry this primarily passionate and ultimately self-destructive motive. Revenge becomes an end in and of itself. War becomes a perpetual, unending cycle of retaliation and counter-retaliation.
2. An upwardly mobile petite bourgeois leadership that witnesses the suffering of those not so successful around them.
Little is known about the background or motives of suspects in the latest case. The 19 suspects who have been publicly identified all have Muslim names; 14 are from London, including several from Walthamstow; four are from High Wycombe, a quiet suburb west of London; and one is from the city of Birmingham. They range in age from 17 to 35, all but three of them in their twenties. Friends interviewed in Walthamstow said the suspects were either born in England or were from families who have lived for many years in London. Police have released no further information about them.
Hussain said many Pakistani immigrants moved out of tiny apartments cramped with relatives and now own multiple cars and houses and flourish financially. But over the years, he has also seen the seeds of radical Islam grow around him.
Despite the prosperity of some Muslims, statistics released by the government earlier this year showed that unemployment rates were higher among Muslims than for any other religion. Among Muslims aged 16 to 24, almost 28 percent were unemployed, compared with about 12 percent of Britons overall in that age group. Many here argue that isolation and disenchantment among young Muslims provides a fertile environment for extremist groups recruiting new members.
Despite the prosperity of some Muslims, statistics released by the government earlier this year showed that unemployment rates were higher among Muslims than for any other religion. Among Muslims aged 16 to 24, almost 28 percent were unemployed, compared with about 12 percent of Britons overall in that age group. Many here argue that isolation and disenchantment among young Muslims provides a fertile environment for extremist groups recruiting new members.
"Whoever teaches or preaches or brainwashes them, the police need to stop them," Hussain said.
Motivated in part by their guilt about their personal success within a community that perceives itself as discriminated against, the leadership creates a passionate ideology, based largely on glorious visions of revenge and retribution, followed by a fanciful belief in socio-political revolution. That ideology creates the means to brainwash followers to sacrifice their lives for their children's children.
3. Current events create the catalyst and provide "proof" of a grand conspiracy.
Menzies Campbell, leader of the Liberal Democrats and a leading opponent of Blair's government, said the reasons young Muslims turn to violence are more complicated than simply economic and social disadvantages. "I used to think it was about having a stake in society, about people having poor housing and poor education," he said. "But the more you look at it, explaining it away as a lack of a stake in the success of the country might not be the easy answer some people think it is."
[...]"The root is foreign policy," said Bukhari, who has emerged in the past year as a leading voice of the young Muslim community. "Only a half-wit wouldn't understand that this is about" British and American policies in the Middle East.
4. Personal experiences that seem to support the macro event inspired "grand conspiracy". The personal investment comes from witnessing the signs of oppression on themselves and their family and friends.
On Sept. 11, 2001, Hussain was managing a retail electronics shop, surrounded by television sets that replayed the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon over and over. "It is still in my mind," he said. Since that day, and especially since the bombings in London last year, many British Muslims have felt under siege, discriminated against and feared for having a beard or dressing in traditional Muslim clothing. When the news broke this week of the arrests in the alleged bomb plot, one of Hussain's two daughters, Afsheen, 15, asked him: "Why do they call them Muslim terrorists? Are we like that?"
[...]Still, many young Muslims believe they have been unfairly targeted by police. Scotland Yard released statistics on Friday showing that 1,047 people had been arrested under the Terrorism Act between September 2001 and the end of June. Of those, only 158 were eventually charged with offenses covered by the law. Officials did not say how many of those arrested were Muslims. But Muslim officials have complained that the vast majority of those arrested were Muslims, and that the low number of people charged suggests that most of the arrests were unwarranted.
5. The ideology undermines the incentives of joining the broader community and surmounting the obstacles of discrimination.
Blair and other British officials have also lamented the failure of many in the Muslim community to fully integrate into British society, preferring to live instead in neighborhoods where they rarely mix with others. "The identity of Muslims in the U.K. is Muslim first and foremost and British second," Ranstorp said, echoing a recent Pew global survey of Muslim attitudes that found that 81 percent of British Muslims who responded agreed with that sentiment. Only Pakistan had a higher percentage of people who considered themselves Muslims first, the survey showed.
6. The most important part of this perspective is the perception of success. Losing the battle is perceived as another step towards winning the war.
The most recent demonstration of this principle is perhaps the most damaging. Hizbullah is seen as the heroic defenders of Lebanon by the entire Lebanese population. Hamas, by winning the election in Palestine, was seen as winning the war with Israel. But most telling of all is Yasir Arafat's comment I quoted from a recent Newsweek article:
That leaves me to contemplate Yasir Arafat’s comment when the 1973 war ended with the Egyptian Army surrounded in the Sinai and the Israelis at the gates of Damascus. “You forget,†he told me after I remarked that a military solution didn’t look too promising for the Arab nations. “The Crusades took 200 years.†What time frame is anyone contemplating here?
Seeing this conflict as a battle of civilizations beginning with the Crusades is a common perspective in the Muslim world. In the 7th to the 8th century, an Islamic empire spread from the Atlantic Ocean to Central Asia and eventually into the islands south of SE Asia. The singular political entity soon broke up into many held loosely together by a shared religious identity. This identity led to attempts at a return to glory several times by strong Islamic sects including the Ottomans towards creating a pan Islamic "Caliphate". This idea continued to spread through offshoots of the Muslim Brotherhood throughout the 20th century. It eventually rooted itself in the philosophy of Al Qaeda.
It is this grand fantasy of new Islamic glory that we face as our enemy. It is as much a grand illusion of world domination. This is not a war that is won with weapons, but rather with ideals, communication and good will. We have been headed in the wrong direction for nearly six years now!
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