Los Angeles Times
Leaders of Iraq's powerful Shiite Muslim political bloc have begun aggressively promoting a radical plan to partition the country as a way of separating the warring sects. Some Iraqis are even talking about dividing the capital, with the Tigris River as a kind of Berlin Wall.
Shiites have long advocated some sort of autonomy in the south, similar to the Kurds' 15-year-old enclave in the north, with its own defense forces and control over oil exploration. And the new constitution does allow provinces to team up into federal regions. But the latest effort, promulgated by Cabinet ministers, clerics and columnists, marks the first time they have advocated regional partition as a way of stemming violence. "Federalism will cut off all parts of the country that are incubating terrorism from those that are upgrading and improving," said Khudair Khuzai, the Shiite education minister. "We will do it just like Kurdistan. We will put soldiers along the frontiers."
The growing clamor for partition illustrates how dire the country's security, economic and political problems have come to seem to many Iraqis: Until recently, the idea of redrawing the 8 1/2 -decade-old map of Iraq was considered seditious. Some of the advocates of partitioning the country are circumspect, arguing that federalism is only one of the tools under consideration for reducing violence. But others push a plan by Abdelaziz Hakim, head of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, a political party. Hakim advocates the creation of a nine-province district in the largely peaceful south, home to 60% of the country's proven oil reserves.
Sunni leaders see nothing but greed in the new push — the Shiites, they say, are taking advantage of the escalating violence to make an oil grab. Iraq's oil is concentrated in the north and south; much of the Sunni-dominated west and northwest is desolate desert, devoid of oil and gas. "Controlling these areas will create a grand fortune that they can exploit," said Adnan Dulaimi, a leading Sunni Arab politician. "Their motive is that they are thirsty for control and power."
Still, even nationalists who favor a united Iraq acknowledge that sectarian warfare has gotten so out of hand that even the possibility of splitting the capital along the Tigris, which roughly divides the city between a mostly Shiite east and a mostly Sunni west, is being openly discussed. "Sunnis and Shiites are both starting to feel that dividing Baghdad will be the solution," said Ammar Wajuih, a Sunni politician.
Critics scoff at the idea that any geographical partitioning of Sunnis and Shiites will make the country safer. Some observers warn that cutting up the country's Arab provinces into separate religious cantons would be as cataclysmic as the partition of Pakistan and India in 1947.
It is very likely the ethnic cleansing will begin in earnest all over Iraq. Millions of people will be immediately at risk because they happen to live on the wrong side of the partition. And as you can see in the above map, there are a lot of key areas under dispute. The migrations and killings are just beginning. Civil war is just around the corner.
However, Turkey will be very concerned about a Kurdish state on it's borders, especially one that includes Kirkuk, a major oil center. The Kurds claim it as it's capital. While there remains a diverse mix of ethnic residents, Turkman represent a large minority. They will be supported by Turkish special forces already in Iraq in position.
The Kurds have the most effective fighting force in Iraq second only to the US. They will not let go of their hold on Kirkuk without a Turkish intervention, no one else has any hope of stopping them. And the Turks have threatened to do just that.
The only hope for Iraq is for it to retain a veil of federalism to hold the country together, however tenuously, with resource sharing with the Sunni minority. The likelihood of success seems quite remote.
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