The seven-judge panel known as the TRIFE, charged with deciding the legitimacy of Mexico's murky July 2 election and confirming the new president, is the nation's court of last resort. What the judges decree is literally the last word, the end of the line; there is no appeal.
On September 5, the last day the Constitution mandated the TRIFE to rule on the most hotly contested balloting in Mexico's checkered electoral history, the judges pronounced their verdict: Outgoing President Vicente Fox's unconstitutional intervention in the electoral process on behalf of his handpicked successor, Felipe Calderon, had put the election "at risk." Moreover, the financing of months of commercial spots that labeled leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) "a danger for Mexico" by transnational and national corporations was patently illegal and influenced voters.
The electoral tribunal also noted that Calderon, the PAN candidate who had been declared the winner by the much-criticized Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) by a razor-thin .55 percent of 41.6 million votes cast, had been awarded tens of thousands of votes that could not be substantiated. The TRIFE, in a partial recount of less than 10 percent of the 130,000 precincts held two weeks before the final decision, had annulled 237,000 votes, more than Calderon's supposed margin of victory.
And the winner was? Calderon, a 44-year-old former energy minister and the scion of a founding PAN family. The party was birthed by Catholic bankers to beat back "Bolshevik" President Lazaro Cardenas during the Great Depression.
The illogic of the TRIFE verdict inflamed several thousand AMLO supporters gathered outside the tribunal's bunker in southern Mexico City. "Fraude!" "Rateros!" (Fraud! Thieves!) they screamed, as the judges were escorted by military police to their expensive vehicles. Lopez Obrador had long accused the seven judges of bowing to Fox government pressures in exchange for personal benefit--three of the TRIFE members are expected to be promoted to the Supreme Court in the coming Calderon administration.
Lopez Obrador points to the tribunal as a glaring example of Mexico's corrupted judiciary and calls for a "radical renovation" of the nation's institutions.
For Lopez Obrador, the confirmation of Calderon's disputed victory signals the end of the line in a grueling, three-year struggle for the presidency during which Fox and his attorney general repeatedly tried to keep him off the ballot, even threatening to jail him on a trumped-up contempt-of-court citation--and the beginning of a new stage of resistance to what the leftist characterizes as the imposition of Calderon upon the nation.
That resistance was graphically illustrated on September 1, when 155 senators and Congressional representatives of AMLO's three-party "Coalition for the Good of All" seized the podium of the Mexican Congress to prevent Fox from pronouncing his final State of the Union address. The takeover was seen as a dress rehearsal for Calderon's December 1 inauguration as Mexico's new president.
The confrontation took place in an ambiance of high tension, with the Congress surrounded by thousands of federal police and members of Fox's presidential military guard. Ten-foot metal barricades and army sharpshooters posted on nearby rooftops kept Lopez Obrador's supporters from gathering within shouting distance of the Congressional compound.
The military is soon expected to evict tens of thousands of AMLO diehards who have been encamped since July 30 on Mexico City's most traveled thoroughfares and in the great Zacalo plaza, protesting the manipulated election. In a prerecorded speech to the nation on the night of the TRIFE's confirmation, Calderon went out of his way to praise the Mexican military as one of the nation's most cherished institutions--Lopez Obrador has often called upon the generals not to allow the army to be utilized in a political conflict against his people.
On September 15, the eve of Mexican Independence Day, President Fox intends to deliver the traditional "grito" of "Viva Mexico!" from the balcony of the National Palace overlooking the Zacalo. AMLO's supporters have vowed not to yield the plaza and to proclaim their own grito to the nation on that day.
Another flashpoint will come September 16, when a major military parade will be staged to commemorate the 196th anniversary of Mexico's liberation from Spain. Lopez Obrador has summoned as many as 1 million delegates from all over the country to converge on the Zacalo that day for a "National Democratic Convention" that is expected to declare a "government in resistance" and formulate strategies to prevent Calderon from ruling for the next six years.
The biggest risk is that the military will be ordered to confront a mass rally in the next few weeks. I suspect Obrador is hoping for a Ukrainian style bloodless revolution. The other side has all the guns right now and control the money as well as the oil companies.
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