Citizen G'kar: Musings on Earth

November 20, 2006

Will Hezbollah Rule Lebanon?

Since Hezbollah essentially defeated the Israeli Army in it's invasion into Lebanon, Hezbollah has been full of themselves. At some point they were promising to make their win in the battle field pay off politically. Now seems to be the time.
A coalition of Druze, Sunni, and some northern Christian leaders support the anti-Syria pro US government. But since their allies best buddy bombed most of Lebanon to the stone age, leaving millions of cluster bomblets where children can find them, this coalition has been weakened. And General Aoun, for his own reasons, joined forces with the pro-Syrian Shi'ites swinging the balence of power.
Israel, some say at the US encouragement has defeated itself at it's northern border, taking on a conflict for which it wasn't prepared to pay the cost. Sound familiar? Bush and his buddies are making the world safe for militant Salafi, the philosophical base behind Al Qaeda, and Shi'a extremists. And now they want to take on Iran?
washingtonpost.com
In a deepening crisis that has paralyzed Lebanese politics, the leader of Hezbollah urged his well-organized followers to prepare for mass protests aimed at toppling the U.S.-backed government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora.


The order by Hasan Nasrallah, given in a speech Saturday that was broadcast Sunday, was the latest in a test of wills between Hezbollah and a government that Nasrallah dismissed as more representative of the U.S. ambassador than Siniora.


More than a simple political standoff in an always fractious country, many see the escalating struggle as perhaps the most decisive in Lebanon in a generation. It may determine which forces guide the country for years ahead: the coalition around Siniora that draws its strength from the country's Sunni Muslims, Druze and some Christians and has aligned itself with the United States and Europe, or Hezbollah's Shiite Muslim constituency, backed by Iran and Syria, and its Christian allies represented by a former Lebanese general.


As is common here, many see the struggle as a proxy battle involving the United States, Israel, Syria and Iran.


[...]Supporters of Siniora's government, critical of Hezbollah's role in starting the war this summer, have gone back and forth over whether they will greet protests with their own demonstrations. They view Hezbollah's campaign as effectively a coup d'etat aimed at derailing the international tribunal and ensuring that Hezbollah retains its weapons.


Still living in the shadow of a 15-year civil war that ended in 1990, many Lebanese worry about the potential for violence if the crisis heads to the streets, where each movement has draped neighborhoods in the iconography and symbolism of its own view of history.

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