US Buts into Intra-Shia War

The natural course of events in Iraq seems to be unfolding despite the presence of US troops. Seemingly, having a new understanding of how little influence the US has in Iraq, the policy has switched quite significantly to tapping into resources already present in the communities in turmoil. The strategy is to pick an ally and appoint them in charge of security and give them support and weapons. This essentially is what would happen if the US pulls out, except, the support would be smuggled into the country by Saudi Arabia and Iran risking a regional conflagration.
Perhaps Bush has finally settled on an exit strategy: prevent regional war, empower the local militias to take over security, and hope things stabilized in a quasi-friendly way to the US.
I think the chance of that are remote, but preventing a regional war is a worthy goal.
Robert Dreyfuss

[Friday], two more Sistani aides were killed, one in Basra and another in Diwaniya. That makes five since August.


During that time, a war in Basra has broken out pitting Sadr, SIIC, and Fadhila forces and various gangs against each other. And two SIIC governors of southern provinces have been killed. Not to mention the armed clash that erupted in Karbala a couple of weeks ago, in which more than 50 Iraqis were killed. That clash pitted Sadr's forces against SIIC paramilitaries.


My own view is that Sadr's forces are a lot stronger than SIIC's. The army and police are bigger than either, of course, but who controls that, ultimately, is anybody's guess. If I were the United States, I'd bet on Sadr, and indeed there is talk of a U.S-Sadr dialogue underway. Then we read (in David Ignatius' column in the Post yesterday) that the United States has quietly given the green light to SIIC's Badr thugs to take control of Nasiriyah:

The American plan now, apparently, is to extend the Anbar model and create "bottom-up" solutions throughout Iraq. For example, I'm told that U.S. commanders met recently with the Shiite political organization known as the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council and gave a green light for its Badr Organization militia to control security in Nasiriyah and some other areas in southern Iraq and thereby check the power of Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. We're interposing ourselves here in an intra-Shiite battle we barely understand.