Haaretz - IDF attacks Hezbollah posts following Har Dov shelling
The security situation on the Lebanese border heated up on Friday, as IDF planes, gunships and tanks destroyed Hezbollah posts in Lebanon, in response to Hezbollah shelling of IDF positions.
No IDF soldiers were wounded during the fighting. The number of Hezbollah casualties is unknown.
The border has been quiet since the IDF activity ended on Friday night. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said over the weekend, "We shall not open a northern front and have no interest in escalation there."
Sounds like Hizbollah are seeking legitimacy within Lebanon as a fighting force. Their sponsor Iran does not want to lose their leverage. However, they have little to gain by alienating themselves from the rest of Lebanon. But they might benefit politically from blood spilled at their border. I wonder if Hizbollah rank and file recognize their cannon fodder status?
The current assessment in Israel is that Hizbullah is facing a growing dilemma over its role inside Lebanon. The United States, France and the United Nations have all called for Hizbullah's disarmament. Hizbullah itself is torn between keeping its jihad rejectionist image and becoming a political party in a more democratic Lebanon.
Israel sees every move by Hizbullah as one focused on internal Lebanese consumption. The dispatch of unmanned aerial vehicles and strikes on the Shaba Farms are considered legitimate reactions to Israeli air force overflights of Lebanon and claims of Lebanese sovereignty over Mount Dov's slopes.
"But if [Nasrallah] decides to order, for example, the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers then Israel will react severely deep into Lebanon and that will extract a price from Hizbullah that until now he has not been forced to pay," the senior officer said.
The officer did not elaborate.
The defense establishment respects Nasrallah's wily expediency, but believes the current metamorphosis underway in Lebanon may cloud the Hizbullah leader's judgment.
There are many missteps that can be taken by Hizbullah, guided by the Iranian Republican Guard. The IDF's current policy to contain the sparks of the weekend's attacks in the North snuffed out any real propaganda success for Hizbullah.
The question now is whether Nasrallah will make the misstep the IDF is waiting for.
If he does, Israel will have to be ready with the appropriate response – one that would reduce the threat of Hizbullah's arsenal of 13,000 rockets pointed at the North but also prevent the Lebanese people from rallying around the Shi'ite organization.
Israel has incredible arrogance. Have they forgotten that Hizbollah aroze from the ashes of the Israeli invasion of Lebanon and essentially drove Israel back to their borders? They want to strike deep, take out military targets and unite Lebanon around Hizbollah? I believe Hizbollah sees that as a legitimate political outcome for them. They will be seen as heroes and martyrs.
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IDF attacks Hezbollah posts following Har Dov shelling
By Amos Harel, Aluf Benn and Yoav Stern
The security situation on the Lebanese border heated up on Friday, as IDF planes, gunships and tanks destroyed Hezbollah posts in Lebanon, in response to Hezbollah shelling of IDF positions.
No IDF soldiers were wounded during the fighting. The number of Hezbollah casualties is unknown.
The border has been quiet since the IDF activity ended on Friday night. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said over the weekend, "We shall not open a northern front and have no interest in escalation there."
The Hezbollah mortar fire was the third attack from Lebanon within less than 48 hours. While nobody had claimed responsibility for the two previous incidents - Israel assumed small Palestinian groups sponsored by Hezbollah were behind them - this time Hezbollah took responsibility for the attack.
A senior government source said, "Hezbollah has an interest in heating up the border and we have an interest to act with restraint, up to a certain point. We believe they will not escalate the situation further."
Tension rose along the Lebanese border last Monday when the IDF accidentally fired a shell over the eastern part of the Lebanese border while trying to dismantle explosives placed by Hezbollah on Har Dov. No one was hurt by the shell.
On Wednesday, the eve of Independence Day, a Katyusha rocket was fired from Lebanon, striking a bakery in Shlomi's industrial zone and causing extensive damage, but no casualties. On Thursday, night two more rockets were fired from Lebanon. They landed in an open area on the slopes of Har Dov.
On Friday, close to 4 P.M., another volley was fired. This time at least 12 mortar shells landed near the IDF's Gladiola position. Nobody was hurt. Israel's response was harsher this time.
Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz gave his approval to attack Hezbollah positions that had been targeted in advance, along the border.
In the central sector, IDF tanks fired toward a Hezbollah position opposite Moshav Dovev. In the eastern sector, fighter planes and gunships attacked three other positions. The IDF reported that all the positions were destroyed. Sources in the Northern Command said the Hezbollah had suffered casualties, but this was not confirmed in Lebanon.
The United States, France and UN Secretary General Kofi Annan issued statements expressing concern over the deterioration in Lebanon and called on both sides to act with restraint. Senior government and military sources said Israel was not interested in escalation and that Sharon had instructed the IDF to retaliate in strength, but at isolated points. This was meant to deter the Hezbollah, but not to lead to further escalation, the sources said.
Major General Benny Gantz, head of the Northern Command, said on Friday that Hezbollah had gone too far lately, and that Israel needed to retaliate. Gantz told reporters, "We retaliated today, and if we have to retaliate more sharply, we will."
Gantz said he held the Lebanese government, which has failed to restrain Hezbollah, responsible for the shellings.
Sheikh Nabil Kauk, the senior Hezbollah leader in southern Lebanon, said the organization had reacted to IDF machine gun fire a few hours earlier, which had hit a house in Kafr Shuba. IDF sources confirmed the firing, saying it was intended to warn a group of shepherds who had come suspiciously close to the border at Har Dov.
Kauk said Hezbollah could not no longer restrain itself after "Israeli violations of Lebanese sovereignty."
Lebanese Foreign Minister Mahmoud Hammoud blamed Israel for the escalation on the border and called on the international community and the United States to act "to ensure stability in the area." Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said he was monitoring events closely and was in touch with UNIFIL.
IDF sources said Hezbollah wanted to escalate the situation with a view toward the elections due in Lebanon at the end of the month.
Analysis: IDF waits for Nasrallah 'to make a mistake'
By ARIEH O'SULLIVAN
Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah
Photo: Al-Manar TV
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The IDF senior command is waiting patiently for Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah to miscalculate. Time is on Israel's side and the main tactic now is to act with restraint.
This is the current thinking in the IDF. It explains the restrained reaction to the Katyusha rocket on Shlomi on Independence Day eve, and the contained artillery, warplane and helicopter gunship retaliation on the Shaba Farms after Hizbullah struck with mortars on Mount Dov. While Palestinian groups were blamed for the Katyusha attack, the defense establishment holds Hizbullah was behind the strike since it is in virtual control of southern Lebanon.
"Every day improves our situation vis- -vis Lebanon. At last there is a situation in the Middle East where time is on our side," a senior officer told The Jerusalem Post.
"We are hoping Nasrallah makes a mistake. He's under a lot of pressure so it will be easier for him to make the wrong decision."
The current assessment in Israel is that Hizbullah is facing a growing dilemma over its role inside Lebanon. The United States, France and the United Nations have all called for Hizbullah's disarmament. Hizbullah itself is torn between keeping its jihad rejectionist image and becoming a political party in a more democratic Lebanon.
Israel sees every move by Hizbullah as one focused on internal Lebanese consumption. The dispatch of unmanned aerial vehicles and strikes on the Shaba Farms are considered legitimate reactions to Israeli air force overflights of Lebanon and claims of Lebanese sovereignty over Mount Dov's slopes.
"But if [Nasrallah] decides to order, for example, the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers then Israel will react severely deep into Lebanon and that will extract a price from Hizbullah that until now he has not been forced to pay," the senior officer said.
The officer did not elaborate.
The defense establishment respects Nasrallah's wily expediency, but believes the current metamorphosis underway in Lebanon may cloud the Hizbullah leader's judgment.
There are many missteps that can be taken by Hizbullah, guided by the Iranian Republican Guard. The IDF's current policy to contain the sparks of the weekend's attacks in the North snuffed out any real propaganda success for Hizbullah.
The question now is whether Nasrallah will make the misstep the IDF is waiting for.
If he does, Israel will have to be ready with the appropriate response – one that would reduce the threat of Hizbullah's arsenal of 13,000 rockets pointed at the North but also prevent the Lebanese people from rallying around the Shi'ite organization.
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