Religion Less Important in Politics in Lebanon?

Very interesting alliances have formed in Lebanon. While religion is still important in politics, old enemies are joining together in a realignment of power brought on by the loss of power of the Maronite Christians since the 1980s, and the strength of Hezbollah, the ally of Iran. These two mortal enemies are aligned with the support of Syria against the anti-Syrian opposition led by Jumblatt.
One can only hope that the shifting loyalties signal a change of emphasis on religion in politics in the Middle East.
Lebanese Rivals, in a Tangled Web of Alliances, Face Off in a Crucial Stage in Elections - New York Times

Lebanese politics, dominated here for decades by neighboring Syria, are always religious and tribal. But this election is developing into a tale of intrigue tangled even by Levantine standards, a quintessentially Lebanese melange of bloodshed, betrayal and a raven-haired beauty.


Indeed, the campaign is now so convoluted that Gen. Michel Aoun, the anti-Syrian nationalist who returned from 15 years in exile, has allied himself with politicians widely regarded as Syrian vassals. And in a breathtakingly odd moment the other night, Sheik Hassan Nasrullah, the Hezbollah leader whose Shiite guerrillas drove Israel out of southern Lebanon, exhorted his followers to vote for candidates of the outlawed Christian militia, the Lebanese Forces, invoking the name of its assassinated leader, Bashir Gemayel, who cooperated with the Israelis' invasion in 1982 and was elected president behind their tanks.

The New York Times
June 12, 2005
Lebanese Rivals, in a Tangled Web of Alliances, Face Off in a Crucial Stage in Elections
By JOHN KIFNER
BEIRUT, Lebanon, June 11 - Parliamentary elections enter a crucial stage in the mountains above Beirut on Sunday as rival anti-Syrian candidates - those of a long-exiled general and of an unlikely coalition of civil war enemies - face off for the first time.
Lebanese politics, dominated here for decades by neighboring Syria, are always religious and tribal. But this election is developing into a tale of intrigue tangled even by Levantine standards, a quintessentially Lebanese mélange of bloodshed, betrayal and a raven-haired beauty.
Indeed, the campaign is now so convoluted that Gen. Michel Aoun, the anti-Syrian nationalist who returned from 15 years in exile, has allied himself with politicians widely regarded as Syrian vassals. And in a breathtakingly odd moment the other night, Sheik Hassan Nasrullah, the Hezbollah leader whose Shiite guerrillas drove Israel out of southern Lebanon, exhorted his followers to vote for candidates of the outlawed Christian militia, the Lebanese Forces, invoking the name of its assassinated leader, Bashir Gemayel, who cooperated with the Israelis' invasion in 1982 and was elected president behind their tanks.
The assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in February set off the tumultuous chain of events - including rallies calling for an end to Syrian occupation that eventually drew a million and a half Lebanese across religious divides - that forced the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, to end his country's 29-year occupation. The withdrawal set the stage for the unlikely coalitions of former civil war enemies. Most of them once cooperated with Syria. Their chances seem good to gain control of Parliament, a development that would almost certainly be followed by an attempt to oust the president, Emil Lahoud, who was hand-picked by Syria. Last September, President Assad had ordered the Lebanese Parliament to amend the Constitution to extend Mr. Lahoud's term by three years.
General Aoun was able to return after the withdrawal. In Lebanon's darkest days in 1989 and 1990, with the civil war at its anarchic worst and an impasse over who would become president, General Aoun, who commanded the Lebanese Army, took over the presidential palace and attacked and defeated the main Christian militia, the Lebanese Forces. This period is little known to the outside world because most foreign journalists had left after a wave of kidnapping of foreigners and attention was focused on the brewing 1991 Persian Gulf war, and the United States, assembling an alliance against Iraq, turned a blind eye to Syria's role in Lebanon in exchange for a token Syrian contingent.
Syria attacked in force, along with remnants of the Lebanese Army and some Christian militias, overwhelming General Aoun. He took refuge in the French Embassy and was eventually spirited off to exile in France, where he became a symbol of resistance to many Christians.
The assassination of Mr. Hariri, widely believed by Lebanese to be Syrian-backed, was followed on June 2 by the killing of a well-known Beirut journalist, Samir Kassir, who had been sharply critical of Syria.
On Thursday, Walid Jumblatt, the Druse leader of the anti-Syrian opposition, said in a television interview that "tens of Syrian intelligence officers are still running free," roaming his Shuf Mountain stronghold and eating lunch in the Bekaa Valley. All the opposition figures are targeted for assassination, Mr. Jumblatt said. "There seems to be a decision somewhere, with or without the knowledge of President al-Assad, to carry on with the assassinations and continue the sabotage campaign."
On Friday, Scott McClellan, the White House spokesman, said that Washington had received information about "a Syrian hit list targeting key Lebanese figures of various political and religious persuasions for assassination." Asked if Syrian intelligence was still operating here, Marwan Hamadeh, a leading opposition strategist who barely escaped a car bomb last October that killed his bodyguard, replied, "Absolutely."
"They are still here," he said in his apartment a block from where that bomb went off. "Especially in the assassination threats. They are directly linked to everything that happened, from the unbelievable assassination of Mr. Hariri to the hit that targeted Samir Kassir." Mr. Hamadeh said he had been a go-between at several meetings with representatives of General Aoun aimed at forming a joint opposition alliance with Mr. Jumblatt's Bristol group, named after the hotel where they first convened. But, he said, talks broke down as General Aoun insisted on his own candidates and they split into rival camps.
At a rally for General Aoun, a Maronite Catholic, in a Christian suburb the other evening, the crowd rhythmically chanted, "General," booed Mr. Jumblatt's name and cheered wildly when the general took his place behind a bulletproof shield. While rallies after Mr. Hariri's death stuck with the red and white of the Lebanese flag, General Aoun's followers have adopted orange for their banners, T-shirts and scarves.
As his main issue, General Aoun charges the political class with corruption and speaks frequently of "petrodollars," apparently a reference to the fortune Mr. Hariri - whose son Saad has taken his place as a candidate - amassed in Saudi Arabia.
The rallies of the other camp frequently feature appearances by Strida Geagea, an ex-model and the wife of the former Christian militia leader Samir Geagea, the only warlord in jail. All had been given amnesty after the civil war, but his was revoked after he was charged with, but not convicted of, blowing up a church. He was subsequently convicted of four wartime political murders, including that of Prime Minister Rashid Karami, who was blown up in his helicopter. Dr. Geagea's release is now a demand of this opposition.
In Lebanon's dizzyingly complicated political system, seats are allocated by religion - the 128-member Parliament is now half Christian and half Muslim - and leading figures can draw up "lists" of supporters to fill the seats in a given district. Thus, in the previous rounds, all 19 seats in Beirut went to Saad Hariri's list, and in the south all 23 seats went to an alliance of the Shiite parties Hezbollah and Amal.
General Aoun's list now includes three major Syrian supporters: Suleiman Franjieh, whose grandfather, as Lebanon's president, invited in the Syrians in 1976; Talal Arslan, a Druse rival to Mr. Jumblatt; and Michel Murr, a longtime defense and interior minister.
The crucial battleground on Sunday will be the Baabda-Aley district in the mountains above Beirut, with seats for five Maronite Christians, three Druse, two Shiites and one Greek Orthodox. Mr. Jumblatt has assembled a list that includes candidates from the old Lebanese Forces, the main Christian militia; another Christian faction headed by former President Amin Gemayel; Qorent Shehwan, the Christian opposition group blessed by Nasrallah Sfeir, the Maronite patriarch; and - most strikingly - Hezbollah, with an eye to the Shiite seats.
At stake overall in the central mountains and the eastern Bekaa Valley on Sunday are 34 Christian and 24 Muslim seats. A final round of voting in the north will be held next week.
* Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company