The Unwinding of Iraq

Juan Cole has the scoop:

SCIRI Rejects Negotiations with Baathists


Against the backdrop of the London Times report that the Americans are negotiating with Iraqi guerrillas, confirmed recently by US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, Gilbert Achcar writes:


Excerpt from the lead article on Iraq in Al-Hayat, June 28:

The Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution in Iraq (led by Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim) [the main Shia fundamentalist pro-Iranian force in Iraq and the main component of the Parliament's majority United Iraqi Alliance] warned the Americans against concluding a settlement with the Baathists and supporters of the previous regime.


Ali al-Aadhad, a member of the leadership of the SCIRI, told Al-Hayat that "the terrorist attack that hit the Shia-inhabited al-Karada area in Baghdad represented a turning point in the strategy of the alliance between the Takfiri forces [fanatical Sunni fundamentalists] and Saddam Hussein' bunch. This turn meant basically a shift from attacks aimed at the US and [Iraqi] army and police men to attacks aimed at Shias as was the case in al-Karada."


He considered that "such terrorist attacks constitute a means of pressure on the Americans to speed up the conclusion of a settlement with Saddam's bunch, allowing them to return to political life." He maintained that "the Americans use sometimes labels like 'Sunni Arabs' in order to justify the talks, but the SCIRI knows that the talks are held with Saddam's bunch."


He accused the Americans of attempting "to by-pass Shia religious forces" [the SCIRI leader specified "religious" because "secular" former US-designated Prime Minister, Iyad al-Allawi, is the main architect of the strategy of a US deal with the Baathists], maintaining that "the timing of the US settlement with Saddam's bunch means that the Americans want to involve this bunch in the drafting of the constitution and the forthcoming elections." He added that one of the most important goals of the al-Barq [Lightning] operation was "to accelerate the weakening of Saddam's bunch in a way that contradicts the ongoing attempts to conclude an American settlement with this bunch."

The religious Shia leadership that dominates the new Iraqi government is committed to "De-Baathification". The problem is that they have disenfranchised anyone who ever worked for the Baaths. The majority of Sunni's have at one time or another served in the army or civil service. The government was the largest employer during Saddam's administration. Iraq is headed towards civil war should the Shia religious leadership continue this tact. Have you ever known a fundamentalist to be flexible?
Worse yet, the relationship between the Shias and the US is deteriorating. Do you suppose someone has finally figured out Iran is the main winner of the war in Iraq? Now, is the US intent to build a relationship between the Sunnis, Kurds and secular Shias to stand up against the religious Shias? You bet. Could the relationship between the US and Shias deteriorate to the point the US could shift sides? I've been thinking at way for awhile.