U.S. Has No Policy on North Korea

Japan Today - Commentary - U.S. has no policy on N Korea

The game that Kim Jong-il has played with the United States seems to be working. The U.S. has been playing a reactive role from the beginning and it is Pyongyang that is calling the shots. This is the result of a series of miscalculations, including overestimating China's role as a peacemaker. While China states that it desires a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula, no one asked the question if that is really to its benefit. As long as China can cut off the food and fuel to North Korea, it has the greatest influence over that country.


However, the Chinese have chosen not to use that control to pressure North Korea back into the talks. The reason is because the ongoing threat of North Korea's nuclear arms program helps China keep both U.S. and Japan's focus in Asia on North Korea and not on less important issues such as Taiwan. In addition, this crisis keeps the United States in a position of having to rely on Chinese influence in this region. While the U.S. may express frustration over unbalanced trade practices such as the textile debate, and unfair monetary practices, it needs a close relationship with China because of North Korea.


In the final analysis, it is North Korea and China who are benefiting from this situation. Unfortunately, it is South Korea, Japan and the United States who are on the losing side of this battle. If North Korea is the child of China and the United States, China is its loving mother and the U.S. is its absent, forgotten father.

It would appear one of America's allies has noticed the truth in the Bush Administration policy for the Korean peninsula. Not surprisingly, the Bush policy was based on the grandiose Neo-con view that no country could stand up to the military might of the US. Certainly not a rag-tag insurgency armed with merely obsolete rocket propelled grenades. Certainly not the stable minds within the the government of megalomaniac playboy Kim Jong-il.
China's only interest in the US is as a customer of it's products. If that changes, which seems inevitable when the coming US correction occurs, they will reign in credit and the US economy will choke on it's deficit.


Complete Article
Wednesday, June 8, 2005
U.S. has no policy on N Korea
Adrienne McPhail
It is becoming very apparent that the United States does not have a foreign policy to deal with the nuclear crisis in North Korea. For the nation of Japan, which is a likely target for this possible aggression, relying entirely upon the U.S. for resolution of this problem is proving to be a precarious position.
The country of North Korea, which was created as a result of the cold war power struggle between the United States and China, is in many ways, their illegitimate child. The division of the Korean Peninsula into two separate countries, one democratic and the other a communist state, set in motion the series of historical events that has resulted in the rogue nation of North Korea becoming a nuclear threat. In addition to the danger of North Korea using its nuclear arms against other countries is the threat that they could sell these arms to terrorist organizations. Based upon their missile sales to various Middle Eastern countries and their involvement in human trafficking, counterfeiting and drug exploits, this is a threat that the United States takes seriously.
Yet, the U.S. policy toward this country has been confused and unbalanced. Beginning with the famous "axis of evil" speech by President George Bush and ending with his referring to Kim Jong-il this week as "Mr Kim Jong-il," the messages from the White House have proven that there is a total lack of leadership or direction on this important issue.
In recent months, the Bush administration has put a great deal of pressure on China to force North Korea back to the bargaining table. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's visit to China last March was, according to a State Department official, an effort to get that country to squeeze North Korea. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill has asked China to cut off their supply of oil to Pyongyang as a means to apply more pressure to get them to return to negotiation. Following the threat from North Korea that they were considering conducting a nuclear test, China has stated that it might respond by suspending their food aid to that country. Chinese food aid makes up about 30-40% of North Korea's food program.
In 2002, China did suspend its heavy oil supplies to North Korea, but has ruled out using this tactic at the present time. "China is the last, best hope," a State Department official told the New Republic, for ending the nuclear standoff. That hope apparently has fizzled out.
So, just what is the U.S. policy now? It appears to be inching toward the direct dialog that has been avoided for so long. North Korean and U.S. officials spoke by telephone a few days ago. The U.S. State Department soon is expected to send some officials to meet with North Korean diplomats at the United Nations. The U.S. also has sent 17 Stealth warplanes to South Korea, as a signal that its patience is running out and that it is searching for a solution. But the presence of warplanes will hardly affect the outcome of this dilemma. Both China and South Korea have asked the U.S. to "put on the table" what it is prepared to offer North Korea but the White House has rejected that suggestion.
The game that Kim Jong-il has played with the United States seems to be working. The U.S. has been playing a reactive role from the beginning and it is Pyongyang that is calling the shots. This is the result of a series of miscalculations, including overestimating China's role as a peacemaker. While China states that it desires a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula, no one asked the question if that is really to its benefit. As long as China can cut off the food and fuel to North Korea, it has the greatest influence over that country.
However, the Chinese have chosen not to use that control to pressure North Korea back into the talks. The reason is because the ongoing threat of North Korea's nuclear arms program helps China keep both U.S. and Japan's focus in Asia on North Korea and not on less important issues such as Taiwan. In addition, this crisis keeps the United States in a position of having to rely on Chinese influence in this region. While the U.S. may express frustration over unbalanced trade practices such as the textile debate, and unfair monetary practices, it needs a close relationship with China because of North Korea.
In the final analysis, it is North Korea and China who are benefiting from this situation. Unfortunately, it is South Korea, Japan and the United States who are on the losing side of this battle. If North Korea is the child of China and the United States, China is its loving mother and the U.S. is its absent, forgotten father.
The writer is an American journalist based in Yokosuka.
June 7, 2005
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