IS RUSSIA a partner of the United States in the war on terrorism? You wouldn't know it from the bitter campaign Moscow is waging to thwart President Bush's democracy agenda in Muslim Central Asia. Mr. Bush rightly believes that political liberalization in the energy-rich and mostly authoritarian republics that lie north of Iran and Afghanistan is essential to denying Al Qaeda and other Islamic extremist movements influence or bases in the region. Yet Moscow insists on portraying U.S. encouragement of free media and free elections as a plot to extend Western influence at Russia's expense. Russian President Vladimir Putin offers a warm embrace to any autocrat who rejects reform.
[...]Uzbekistan thus joined an emerging Moscow-led bloc of dictatorships. Belarus, home of Europe's last strongman, and Turkmenistan, ruled by a despot whose cult of personality rivals that of Kim Jong Il, are charter members; Mr. Putin is also working hard to win over authoritarian Armenia, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. Through his diplomats and the Russian media, he conducts a mendacious propaganda campaign, arguing that U.S. support for independent civic groups, free media and opposition political parties is a cover for CIA-sponsored coups. He presses Central Asian governments to expel U.S. forces from bases while offering energy and military deals of his own. He publicly applauds fraudulent elections and crackdowns on opposition movements.
Bush first engaged the new republics in Central Asia, seeking bases and cooperation. Speaking of human rights and liberalizing the political process were appropriate topics for discussion. But contrary to the Neocons perspective that democracy will sprout where ever you feed it, we see in every headline on Iraq how naive that position was. Yet, Bush stupidly changed course in his second term, using coercion to the sitting governments and covert aid to the political opposition, he actively undermined what had been a good start in engaging Central Asia.
Recognizing the threat, they have one by one turned back to Russia as a friend they can trust, who supports their values. Russia is merely exploiting Bush's incompetence.
The active engagement of China begun by Nixon is a good example of the approach that might have worked. Once countries share a economic success through heavy trade, persuasion, even gentle coercion becomes an option. Bush played his cards before he had a winning hand.
Truly, the article points out some of the ways Russia has not been helpful. But isolating Russia and restarting the cold war will make things worse, not better. Quiet diplomacy and active trade is a potent long range strategy with all potential adversaries.
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